Morning Coffee: Junior bankers in London confront Christmas day working. Man who got first banking job aged 49 earns millions

It has happened. The rain making gods have delivered and the deals are falling from the sky in London, allaying fears that the new government of Keir Starmer augured a long period of aridity. 

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The only problem is timing. When deals drop at this time of year, they're unlikely to close before year-end, meaning they won't contribute to the 2024 bonus pool, meaning that anyone working on them will need to wait until early 2026 to see the fruits.  And when deals are announced in very late November, there's also a distinct danger that they will involve working over Christmas.

Christmas working seems particularly likely with two of the deals announced this week. Bloomberg notes that under UK takeover rules, Aviva has until 5pm on Christmas day to make an offer for Direct Line and that Macquarie has until the end of the day on December 26th (Boxing Day) to announce whether it will go ahead with its deal for Renewi. 

Aviva is being advised by financial institutions group bankers at Citi and Goldman Sachs. The Goldman team is being led by Anthony Gutman, Nimesh Khiroya and Bertie Whitehead, whose juniors should probably prime themselves for festive toil. The Macquarie-Renewi deal involves Goldman Sachs (Nimesh Khiroya / Rutger van Halder / Amit Puri) and Citi (Barry Weir / Sian Evans / Robert Redshaw). Anyone in these teams might want Christmas in February instead. 

It's not unheard of for junior bankers to work over Christmas when live deals require it. However, there are complaints that that today's juniors are less biddable than yesterday's and that senior bankers end up having to do their work themselves. Managing directors themselves may need to stay in London and work this Christmas, instead of heading for the country to eat.

Separately, George Osborne, the former UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, is a senior banker with a house in the country and he works for a boutique bank that's staffed on one of the Christmas deals. 

Robey Warshaw, Osborne's employer since 2021 is advising Direct Line on the Aviva bid. Osborne himself isn't staffed on the deal - that privilege goes to Simon Robey and Chetan Singh, but maybe he'll be expected to give his colleagues moral support. 

If so, Osborne won't really be able to complain. He only began working in banking aged 49 and last year he and two other partners split £30m. Robey himself earned £40.5m. In those circumstances, Christmas work looks more worthwhile. 

Meanwhile...

Robey Warshaw only has 14 employees and it paid them a total of £14.4m for the year to March 2024. (Financial News) 

Revolut told its ex-staff they can sell up to 5% of their stock holdings in a secondary sale. Former staff learned the good news in a memo saying, "Given investor demand we are now in a position to extend the same opportunity to you — Revolut alumni.” (Bloomberg) 

Jeremy Coller, the founder of private equity firm Coller Capital has a new family office. He hired Sarah Macedo from an early stage investment fund to run it. (Bloomberg) 

European bond issuance has reached a record-breaking €1.705 trillion ($1.8 trillion) this year, which is more than the high-water mark previously set in 2020. There is some trepidation about next year. “The main risk to that would be a rapidly deteriorating European growth outlook and more comprehensive US tariff threats than the market is anticipating. That could weigh on broader market sentiment, shut primary market access temporarily and could also see issuers reevaluate.” (Bloomberg) 

Rates traders are on track to have their worst year since the pandemic. (Bloomberg) 

HSBC analysts say Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley shares now offer an “unattractive risk reward profile” following the recent rally in bank stocks. (Bloomberg) 

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