GUEST COMMENT: Pity any expats who lose their jobs in Dubai
Upheaval in the Arab world is spreading fear among Dubai's expat bankers The permeating paranoia is not that the 'Arab Street' will rise against us (90% of the people on the street are foreigners), but that we will be made redundant.
In the circumstances, the turmoil in Bahrain is the last thing we need. In Dubai, we've spent the past few years in a lean period. The value of M&A deals in MENA fell by more than 25% last year from 2009, while IPO value slumped 80% compared to 2008. In the UAE, trading volumes on the stock markets were down more than 50% in 2010 from the previous year and more than 10 brokers suspended trading as they weren't making enough money to justify their existence.
Things could clearly get even worse.
Dubai is the centre for financial services across the Middle East. If the Middle East descends into dysfunction, financial services will be unnecessary.
From Dubai to the dole
Plenty of people have lost their jobs here already. After being made redundant, many hang around for months in the often unrealistic hope of finding another job. The tax-free package, the pool, the maid and the 4-wheel drive become difficult to give up after a while - especially when the alternative is to go on the dole in Birmingham or Dublin or some other freezing northern city where the shop assistants don't call you 'sir' simply because you are wearing a suit.
Unfortunately, permission to stay in Dubai after redundancy is often at the whim of the former employer. UAE law forces people to leave the country quickly if they no longer have a company to sponsor them - sometimes within as little as a month. While some companies are willing to keep staff on their books long after they have stopped working, unscrupulous bosses have been known to use their sponsorship power as a bargaining chip in arguments about severance pay. Anyone signing a new employment contract should read it carefully with that in mind.
From good job in Dubai to really bad job in Dubai
With the threat of England hanging over them, many people opt to take an unsatisfactory of badly paid job simply to stay in Dubai. They quickly leave this, surrender to inevitability, and return to the Milton Keynes. From there, they bombard those of us fortunate to remain in the emirate with calls and emails trying to find a way back. Many look at the same time for jobs in Abu Dhabi, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait and Riyadh. Most people rank these cities by preference according to the number of bars they have, this being not only appealing in itself but also a proxy for other attractions.
Though the protests sweeping the Middle East are giving Dubai's bankers jitters in the short term, pessimism may prove misplaced. Dubai's long-standing reputation as a safe house in a bad neighbourhood is likely to be reinforced. This has always been high up on the list of any company wanting somewhere stable to set up or expand in the Middle East. From now on it will be even higher.
The author is an anonymous financial services professional in the GCC.
