New hires will pay off very, very soon for Greenhill, Lazard and Evercore

Gareth Davies may have got the right idea. Last week it emerged that Davies, a star restructuring banker, was quitting Close Brothers to join Greenhill as a managing director in its restructuring business.

If analysts at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods are right, Davies has made a good move. Thanks to boutiques' accumulation of senior staff since 2008, they're predicting a big uptick in revenues at advisory firms in 2010 and 2011, with Greenhill expected to take the lead.

Lazard has hired 17 MDs over the past year. Greenhill has hired at least three across industries which tend to benefit from a recovery (industrials, energy and infrastructure), and Evercore has hired at least seven SMDs (senior managing directors).

Source: KBW (click to expand)

KBW's analysts claim that it takes 18-24 months for new hires to meet their revenue-generating potential. Although revenues per MD at Greenhill have suffered this year (which doesn't augur well for 2009 bonuses), they should therefore leap upwards from 2010.

Source: KBW