The more insecure bankers in the world might be in Dubai
Although the 1,700 that voted in our bonus expectations survey are pretty confident about where in the world bonuses will go up most, it turns out that that optimism isn't a very good proxy for job security.
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To paraphrase a famous quote: all happy bankers are alike; each unhappy banker is unhappy in his own way.
Respondents around the world who feel confident about their job security overwhelmingly list their own performance, as well as their comparatively low pay, as the reason they are safe from any layoffs. “I am cheap,” says one FICC vice president earning $250k+. “A replacement would cost 3x [as much].”
Much more interesting are the sources of pessimism, which are also quite consistent around the world, if more varied.
Despite the market reaction being almost entirely positive about a second Trump administration, many North American respondents to our survey cite the election and his presidency as a key source of insecurity in their current roles. “Trump is going to screw this economy up,” says one Chicago-based operations MD.
For some, there is a sense of gloom that’s worsened since the pandemic. As one (currently unemployed) Australian tells us, “The world has become very brutal post-covid,” and “no-one is safe.” A London-based asset management director says that his industry is facing “challenging headwinds,” and that “the industry feels more fragile today than 5 years ago.” Margins are down “at most firms,” he says.
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