Why banks are wary of hiring in 2025: "So many black swans, I can't see the water"
If you're hoping to find a new banking job this year, it may not be as easy as some banks' more ebullient revenue forecasts have suggested. Even if pipelines are full and animal spirits are back, opportunities for derailment are many.
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"Clients are saying there are so many black swans this year, they can't see the water," says the head of one European headhunting boutique. In normal times, he says he'd start the year with 30 mandates. This year, he has five.
The problem was, and remains, uncertainty. If it's not tariffs, it's rates. If it's not rates, it's offhand comments implying a possible default on US Treasuries. For all the positive predictions, global M&A revenues were down 20% in the six weeks to mid-February. This is not a booming market.
Hiring for markets divisions doesn't seem to be taking up the slack. As Barclays noted today, investments in sales and trading are increasingly about spending on in technology rather than human beings. The head of one markets-focused US search firm says hiring remains "tepid" at banks, even if hedge funds are still active.
There are, however, pockets of activity. Headhunters on both sides of the Atlantic say banks are still staffing-up with associates in anticipation of having more deals to work on later in the year. Meredith Dennes at Prospect Rock Partners in New York says there's particular demand for banking associates in life sciences and technology, while hiring for "consumer and FIG teams is just starting to get hot." In Europe, Lazard, Citi, Nomura and Jefferies are all said to be looking for banking juniors.
Unfortunately, the market is being flooded with talent. "HSBC is losing people and everyone is looking at hiring them," says Andrew Pringle at search firm Circle Square. HSBC juniors say they're interviewing and that some are already securing new jobs. "Recruiters are swamped with inbounds from HSBC people," says one HSBC associate. Pringle says the bank is full of "low-hanging fruit."
Things may improve. This year's bonus round has been mixed, with pay highly skewed towards top performers. Once bonuses have been paid, this may create movement among those who think they deserve more. "Pay dates are approaching. Everyone's waiting to see who resigns," says the head of the US markets search firm.
Others are not so sure, however. "Banks are going to keep running lean," says the senior London headhunter. "They'll promote associates or VPs rather than hiring externally."
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