Credit Suisse says two other banks are having a tough quarter
With Credit Suisse bankers and traders reportedly exploring their options and seeking to escape en masse, escapees may want to heed the latest research note from Credit Suisse's European banking team. After a challenging first quarter, the note suggests that some banks are performing worse than others. This doesn't mean they'll require a weekend bailout by a national rival; it does mean that they might not be the best places to find a new job at.
If you work in fixed income sales and trading, Credit Suisse's analysts suggest the banks to be avoided are either Barclays or SocGen. As the chart below shows, this is where year-on-year revenues are expected to fall by the most in the first quarter and then during the year as a whole. This also applies to anyone working in equities, although revenues there aren't expected to fall by as much.
When it comes to fees in the investment banking division (IBD), including M&A and equity and debt capital markets, it's Deutsche Bank that might be best swerved. As the chart below, also from the Credit Suisse note, shows, it's Deutsche Bank's investment banking division that's had the most miserable start to the year, based on figures from both Dealogic and visible consensus.
Mostly, the note says that 2023 is not looking like a good year for banking revenues and that US banks are probably the best places to sit this out. - They're expected to gain market share from the Europeans.
It's a bit of a comedown from hopes for a recovery. “Until a few weeks ago, the beginning of a rebound could be felt consistently across most geographies and sectors,” Mark Sorrell, co-head of global M&A at Goldman Sachs, lamented. “It was everywhere, you could feel the deals market coming back.”
Following the small spate of bank failures, Sorrell has deferred his optimism until 'later in the year'. “The pivot point is reduced macro uncertainty and the availability of financing. If that comes back and volatility reduces and confidence rises, we'll see a meaningful rebound in deal activity,” he added.
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