One chart that tells you everything about bonuses on Wall Street

If you're looking for a financial services job that comes with potential for big bonus growth in the years to come, where should you focus your attention? Try asset management or private equity, Forget hedge funds and go nowhere near investment banking.

So says Wall Street pay consultant Alan Johnson, whose first quarter bonus projections (shown in the chart below) suggest asset management bonuses are roaring ahead and investment banking bonuses are not. In fact, investment banking bonuses are falling: Johnson thinks they'll decline 30% this year.

Needless to say, Wall Street's declining bonuses are being offset by Wall Street's increasing salaries. Junior bankers at analyst and associate level have received salary increases of 20-25% in the past year, offsetting the decline in their incentive pay.

Equally, asset management might not be the safe bet that Johnson thinks it is. Morgan Stanley's banking analysts are predicting a harsh future for asset management firms, which they predict will struggle as interest rates rise in the US.

 Source: Johnson Associates