Will Putin's victory unleash a wave of hiring by international banks in Russia?

Is President Putin's electoral victory what's needed to make Moscow the financial centre it aspires to be?

For a moment, it looked like the answer was yes. After Putin won 63.8% of the vote, the Micex rose 1.4% yesterday - climbing to its highest level since August 3rd. As Bloomberg points out, the index is up 13% in 2012, more than the stockmarkets in either India or China.

International banks like Nomura and

have pulled back from Russia in the past year, while others like RBS are understood to be examining their need for a Russian investment banking presence.

In theory, Putin's win - and the rising price of oil - could encourage other international banks to fill the gap. Some, such as Credit Suisse have indicated that they want to build in Moscow and JPMorgan emphasised international expansion in developing markets as a key part of its strategy in an investor presentation last week.

“Above all else, investors like the certainty [of a Putin win],” Julian Rimmer, a trader of Russian shares at CF Global Trading in London, told Bloomberg. Putin's victory also means the programme of privatizing Russia's state companies will continue, attracting international banks who want the big fees associated with massive initial public offerings.

And yet, as the Moscow Times pointed out yesterday, Putin's victory has done little to remove the political risk of international banks building and hiring in Russia. We need to see what the opposition is going to do, and we need to see what the leadership's response to the opposition will be," Peter Westin, chief equity strategist at Aton brokerage, told the publication. "I wouldn't lower political risk yet, that's for sure."

International banks are unlikely to embark on serious expansion in Russia until the protests over Putin's re-election subside. When they do, substantial recruitment may follow.