We've already mentioned JPMorgan's huge report on the investment banking industry globally. We haven't mentioned that there's a specific look at the evolution of the investment banking industry in Russia - and what's likely to happen next.

JPMorgan's analysts point out that Russia's investment banking industry is still relatively immature. Although financial products have been traded in Moscow since the early 1990s, growth has been erratic. The crisis of 1998/99 was followed by a period of rapid growth, with a 10x rise in the ECM/DCM/M&A deal volume between 2003 and 2007.

Hiring in Russia has come in waves as domestic and international banks have built up in the market. In the early 2000s, domestic Russian investment houses like RenCap, Troila, Aton and the investment banking divisions of private banks like Alfa, Alfa, UralSib, MDM and Trust, built their presence. At the same time, international banks pushed into the market - either through acquisitions (Deutsche and UFG, UBS and Branswick) or through local hiring (JPMorgan, Goldman, Credit Suisse, Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch).

Where we are now

Right now, JPMorgan says the Russian market is in another period of growth and hiring. But this time it's being driven by the big government-controlled giants of Sberbank and VTB.

By comparison, RenCap is still recovering from the aftermath of 2008, when it had to fire-sell a 50% stake to the billionaire Mikhail Prokhorov for $500mn. If and when Russia's big privatisation programme happens, VTB and Sberbank are likely to be the beneficiaries - not RenCap.

There have also been significant redundancies: Unicredit wrote off its Russian investment to zero after acquiring Aton's brokerage business in 2006 and coming to the conclusion that it couldn't compete against the state-owned brokerage houses. Equally, MDM and Trust have closed most of their securities operations.

Growth potential, or not

Will the Russian market grow in future?

Yes - if the massive privatisation programme goes ahead. The Russian government intends to raise $70bn by selling its stakes in the largest Russian companies between 2012 and 2017. JPMorgan's analysts say $300m is to be raised in 2012, with a massive $32bn planned for 2013.

Equity capital markets revenues in particular are expected to soar as result. JPMorgan is predicting a 40% rise in 2012.

Market leaders

As noted above, Sberbank and VTB are expected to account for a far more substantial proportion of Russian investment banking revenues in future. For the moment, international banks like Deutsche and Goldman Sachs are also important players.

Source: JPMorgan

Source: JPMorgan

Source: JPMorgan