Kian Abouhossein, the J.P. Morgan analyst particularly known for his insistence that banks need either to substantially cut pay or substantially reduce headcount to maintain their earnings per share (EPS) in the current environment, has produced a new report.
There’s nothing about pay and headcount cuts this time. Abouhossein is actually a little optimistic: he still thinks things will be bad, but that they will be less bad than he originally expected.
Based upon his analysis of business performance in the first quarter, here is where you should – ideally – be working, and where you probably shouldn’t.
Fixed income currencies and commodities at Goldman Sachs
J.P. Morgan thinks Goldman’s FICC revenues will increase 31 percent this year compared to 2011 (versus a market average decrease of 6 percent).
Equities at Goldman Sachs
“We expect Goldman Sachs to outperform Morgan Stanley on all revenue lines,” says Abouhossein. Equities revenues at Goldman are predicted to increase 4 percent in 2012, versus a market average decline of -6 percent.
IBD at Barclays Capital
Barclays Capital is going to increase its IBD revenues another 4 percent this year, predicts Kian. By comparison, he thinks they’re going to fall by 5 percent across the market.
FICC at BNP Paribas
BNP Paribas has been busy building its FICC business for the past few years, and it may come to nothing. The French bank is cutting risk weighted assets and making 202 layoffs in structured finance and another 187 cuts in derivatives, FX and rates. Abouhossein thinks FICC revenues at the bank are going to fall 6 percent.
Equities at BNP Paribas or UBS
While Goldman’s equities business is expected to outperform, Abouhossein thinks equities revenues at BNP Paribas and UBS are going to fall 14 percent and 13 percent respectively in 2012.
IBD at Credit Suisse (and maybe FICC)
Credit Suisse didn’t have a great 2011. J.P. Morgan’s analysts think it won’t have a great 2012 either: They’re expecting IBD revenues to fall 14 percent. Despite an expected increase in FICC revenues at CS in 2012, you may wish to avoid Credit Suisse’s FICC business too: “We remain concerned about the Tier II FICC franchise,” J.P. Morgan says.