Only those with rose-tinted spectacles and a stubbornly optimistic streak can predict an easy ride for South African financial services and South African financial services jobs in the year ahead.

“2011 was a tough year for everyone and we were glad to see the back of it, but 2012 is likely to be just as challenging,” says Anton Apps, director of Anton Apps private recruitment firm inJohannesburg. “But at least it will not be an end-of-the-world scenario.”

If the world keeps on turning, we boldly predict the following will overcome difficulties and have a stellar year:

Standard Chartered

In 2011, while competitors announced thousands of redundancies, the emerging market specialist said it would recruit 2,000 people by the end of the year. The bank has embarked on a “strategic expansion drive” inAfrica, strengthening its position and growing its business in different areas and countries. This will continue in 2012. Experts say what they need is an equities franchise inSouth Africato then ‘export’ to other African countries. This may be the year in which StanChart finally buys Old Mutual’s majority stake in Nedbank. In 2010 the almost-done deal was scuppered by HSBC, which made a £4.5bn offer for Nedbank and then pulled out unexpectedly. Since then, Nedbank has been powering ahead and has become an even more attractive target. So this could be the year that StanChart crowns its successfulAfricastrategy by landing the big prize.

The African Diaspora

As banks chase the African growth story, demand for African bankers who have some years’ international experience is at an all-time high. Both African and international banks scour the City and Wall Street looking for talented African expatriates who are willing to return home and use their local connections, knowledge and lingo. Women bankers are “the top prize”, recruiters say, and can command high salaries. Hiring local citizens also avoids complex work visa issues and is liked by the government – a win-win situation for the bank.

Corporate banking

Historically corporate banking has been big business inAfricabut a resurgence has been taking place, as highlighted by Standard Bank. The continent’s natural resources wealth – from copper to oil, from gas to platinum – is the big driver of growth. “Corporate banking is set to expand in 2012,” says Phryne Williams, managing director of Capital Assignments, a specialist financial services recruitment firm. “A lot of companies are going towards a multi-product model, integrating their product offering and cross-selling effectively.”

On the negative side, the following are unlikely to have a good year or a positive impact:

Bonuses

Pay-outs are staggered from February to June in South Africa but disappointment is already in the air. Bankers’ remuneration has not had the bad press the sector endured in Europe and theUS, but in the current climate no one wants to fan the flames. “Banks will not be overly generous with bonuses in 2012, and frankly they would be irresponsible if they were,” says Williams. “There have been peaks, but now we are going through a trough so expectations must be lowered. Special precautions are needed at a time like this.”

Fund management

Not all Africans will put their money under their mattresses this year, but risk-aversion is expected to remain high, making life difficult for the sector. The FTSE/JSE Africa All Share Index has declined 1% this year, the worst performance since the dark days of 2008. Domestic investors have reduced their equity holdings to their lowest in over twenty years, while many are opting for multi-asset strategies to diversify risk. “Long-only African Portfolio Managers have had a torrid time in 2011 as a result of the fall-out of the Eurozone debt crisis,” says Walter Ankrah, head of African financial services at executive search firm New Millennium Group. “So many historically decent long-only funds are down between 12 and 16% year-on-year. In contrast, top quartile multi-strategy portfolio managers have done well in these challenging times for theAfricaasset management space.”

Banking regulation

South Africa is not immune to the regulation clampdown that is being watched with anxiety by Western financial institutions. The Reserve Bank has said that SA banks will face a “significant challenge” to meet the new tougher liquidity requirements due to be introduced by 2015. “The sector’s reliance on short-term wholesale funding for long-term assets is likely to present a significant challenge to banks in meeting the liquidity coverage ratio and the net stable funding ratio,” the Central Bank said. Even though SA’s banks have minimal exposure to Euro economies at risk like Italy or Spain, the crisis in the eurozone is affecting sentiment. “The uncertainty around the European debt crisis seems to be one of the prime reasons for slow employment growth,” according to Peter Winn, MD of Manpower SA. Employers’ expectations about the pace of hiring are at their lowest since the Manpower quarterly survey started in 2006, Mr Winn says.