Predicting what's going to happen over the next 12 months is usually a thankless task at the best of times, but as we enter 2012 – which by most accounts looks like being a roller-coaster ride of a year – it's even more difficult.

Nonetheless, with most financial services firms now formulating their hiring plans for next year, we spoke to prominent recruiters north of the border to find out what their predictions are for next year. Here, along with some of our own suggestions, are their conclusions for 2012:

2012 could be a good year for:

1) Risk, compliance and regulatory roles

Yes, this has been a familiar theme for a few years now, with risk managers enjoying an elevated status within financial services organisations and compliance teams being beefed up to deal with increasingly onerous regulatory requirements. However, the new jobs show no sign of stopping north of the border.

"Most firms have been shoring up skills in risk and regulation throughout the year, but we do not see this changing into 2012," says Mike Leeman, manager of the financial services division at Bright Purple in Edinburgh. "There is still a dearth of people who have implemented mature risk strategies (particularly on non regulated risk – operational, for example). So firms will be looking for talent to implement and talent to run these programmes."

2) Replacement hiring from the RDR fallout

The retail distribution review (RDR) is shaking up the independent financial advisor (IFA) industry, by forcing through changes to the fee structure in the sector and requiring that any individual offering financial advice must meet a minimum standard of qualification.

There are many qualifications you can undertake to comply with the new regulations, but a lot of people in the industry are deciding that it's simply time to move on. In theory, this should improve standards in the IFA community, but it also potentially provides more job opportunities.

"A lot of IFAs, particularly those in the twilight of their careers, are simply dropping out of the industry because of the qualifications required through RDR," says Mike Stirton, divisional director of Core Asset Solutions. "This creates a lot of turnover, and means that many firms will have vacancies to fill."

3) Project and change management positions

We've mentioned the ongoing requirement for change managers and people to manage projects related to the shake-up of various functions within financial services firms in Scotland – from IT to HR – numerous times before. However, all indications point to the fact that this is set to continue into 2012.

"The demand for project, change, compliance and risk managers will continue into the new year," says Margaret Dyer, director of Randstad Finance and Professional in Scotland.

4) Insolvency practitioners

As a region, Scotland had the largest year-on-year percentage increase in the number of business insolvencies during October – over 45%, according to the latest available figures from information services company Experian. Not surprisingly, in such tough economic times, insolvency practitioners are feeling the benefit.

"The increased cost of living combined little in the way of salary inflation means most people are feeling the pinch. This is also affecting businesses in that fewer people are paying bills on time, which creates cashflow issues," says Leeman. "We'd expect more work for insolvency firms and therefore and increased need to recruit."

And 2012 could be a bad year for:

1) Investment operations

We've mentioned this earlier in December, but there's a growing sense of unease about the potential for investment operations roles currently performed in Scotland to make their way to Eastern Europe or India.

Much of this activity remains focused on relatively low-skilled roles such as settlements and trade support around vanilla products. However, it's a trend that seems to be increasing across the globe.

In Singapore, for instance, Morgan Stanley is shifting 80 operational and support roles to India and Hungary and the relocation "threat" is hanging over a number of firms in the city state.

"Some firms have already stripped out basic operational functions in the Scottish operations to focus on pure fund accounting, and we expect this trend to pick up in 2012," says Stirton.

2) Growth in Scottish financial services jobs

Believe it or not, but 2011 was actually a pretty good year for financial services job creation in Scotland. Alex Salmond was quick to point out in July that job numbers in the sector were fast-approaching pre-crisis levels, and Glasgow's International Financial Services District (IFSD) has now gained more jobs than it lost during the 2008 financial crisis.

Unfortunately, this could have been the last hurrah in terms of net job growth for some time.

In its latest outlook, the Ernst & Young Scottish Item Club suggested that the current number of people working in financial services is 99,000 and that next year this figure will remain more or less exactly the same. This doesn't mean that jobs won't be created, of course, but that there's still enough pain to come in the sector to ensure that there's no net growth.