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2012: What will go up and what will go down in the Irish financial services job market?

We're arguably on the cusp of another financial crisis as we enter 2012, and – despite some more positive sentiment around the Irish financial services job market recently – next year promises to be tough.

Nonetheless, with hiring plans for the coming 12 months currently being formulated, we spoke to financial services recruiters in Ireland about their expectations for 2012. Here are our conclusions.

2012 could be a good year for:

1) Restructuring experts

The Irish economy may be slightly on the up as we head out of 2011, despite the fact that the dark shadow of a eurozone recession looms large. Nonetheless, it's a commonly held assumption that the pipeline of restructuring work continues for years after any recovery begins. Not surprisingly, both large accountancy firms and banks in Ireland are beginning to build their teams in this area.

"There is a huge issue with short-term debt and, historically, there has been no skill-set in the banks to deal with this," says Zara Mullholland, financial services recruiter at Careers Register. "It is an area that a lot of part qualified and qualified accountants would have experience in. It is therefore an area where we could see growth as banks become more inventive with hiring in this area."

2) Corporate finance professionals

We pointed previously to the fact that a few corporate finance firms in Ireland have become open to the idea of recruiting again. It remains a tough operating environment, however; according to the chief executive of IBI Corporate Finance, Tom Godfrey, the eurozone crisis is prompting many prospective buyers to put deals on ice until it becomes clearer how the situation will play out.

Nonetheless, the mutterings coming out of the corporate finance firms in Ireland is that 2012 could be a year of relative expansion.

"There appears to be increased in deal flow among the large and small CF houses leading to opportunities at executive and associate director level," says Paul O'Reilly, senior consultant - banking & financial services at Robert Walters in Ireland.

3) Working capital/invoice discounting teams

Companies in Ireland have cash flow problems. In many cases invoices issued many months ago are still outstanding, which could therefore in turn affect the ability of the company owed money to finance their own debt obligations. In such a scenario, it would be very bad for Ireland's economy to allow a lot of firms to fold, simply because their debts have yet to be paid. Therefore, they need a help in hand – step forward the working capital professional.

"There will be massive strides in the recruitment of working capital professionals and those with invoice discounting expertise," says Eoin Blake, director of financial services headhunters Lincoln Search & Selection. "The payment cycle has increased, which means that both SMEs and large corporates will need short-term credit solutions to ensure their businesses can continue to run affectively."

4) Compliance professionals

Financial services organisations are being flooded with regulation. A recent survey by the Thomson Reuters governance, risk and compliance division, over 14,000 regulatory changes were announced around the world this year – or around 60 every single day.

Obviously, there are the headline regulations – Basel III, MiFID, Dodd-Frank and Solvency II – but generally the compliance divisions of financial services organisations are increasingly stretched. Recruitment is therefore a necessity.

"We have already seen further growth in this area in Q4 2011 with many firms opting to take on compliance experts to support their existing teams," says Eimear Walsh, financial services consultant at Brightwater recruitment. "We have seen this growth at a senior and junior level. We are also seeing a big demand for compliance and regulatory consultants to work in the advisory departments of the larger accountancy practices and predict this will continue to grow in Q1 and Q2 2012."

5) Non-core corporate banking positions

Demand for mainstream corporate banking services has been on the decline in Ireland for some time now, with both banks' desire to lend and clients' appetite for expansion hampered by the financial crisis.

The upside of this from a recruitment perspective, however, is that the likes of trade finance, cash management and transaction banking (which officially fall under the corporate banking umbrella) have become increasingly important.

"European banks based in Ireland, in particular, have focused on beefing up their trade finance functions, but cash management and transaction banking have provided a lot of new opportunities this year and we expect that to continue in 2012," says Blake.

And 2012 could be a bad year for:

1) Funds industry roles

2011 was a year of relatively aggressive expansion for most of the funds servicing firms based in Ireland, who were buoyed by a raft of new work, particularly from the hedge fund sector.

Things can change quickly in the eurozone, but current concerns in Ireland are centred on how the UK veto of the EU's plans for closer fiscal policy could affect the financial services sector here. If plans for a financial transactions tax are imposed across Europe, but bypass Britain, the suggestion is that international financial services firms – particularly those in the fund administration sector – would be less likely to stick around.

2) Retail banking roles in domestic banks

Sadly, the shrinkage in Ireland's banking sector is ongoing and seems likely to seep into 2012.

AIB's planned 2,000 redundancies have yet to be finalised, but it seems likely that retail banking will feel a good proportion of the pain. Similarly, Bank of Ireland's 750 redundancies announced this year are still in the process of being implemented and the branch network is an obvious target. National Irish Bank's parent company Danske Bank has been slow to retrench further from Ireland, but ongoing cost-cutting across the group suggests this policy could be revised.

3) Fund management

Generally, asset managers have been struggling recently with a combination of poor fund performance and nervous investors pulling their money, meaning assets under management have been on the decline. Firms are generally reluctant to make redundancies, but some international firms in Ireland –  LBBW Asset Management, for example – have pulled out of the country.

"There is continued uncertainty, with some fund houses still potentially up for sale and others having exited Dublin," says O'Reilly.  "It is a difficult market for experienced money managers with many having to look to London for career options."

4) Capital markets professionals

Irish banks are being forced to look inwards, not outwards and the internationally-focused capital markets and treasury divisions – once the highly-profitable jewel in their crowns – are being increasingly marginalised. Job cuts have not been forthcoming, but this doesn’t mean that people are particularly keen to stick around.

"Capital markets functions will continue to suffer in 2012, with banks being forced to take a more domestic focus," says Blake. "People are not being fired – they're just moving to roles in Singapore, Hong Kong and London."

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AUTHORPaul Clarke

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The essential daily roundup of news and analysis read by everyone from senior bankers and traders to new recruits.