London financial services jobs are shrinking back to levels last seen in 1998

27 October 2011

2 minute read

London financial services jobs are shrinking back to levels last seen in 1998

So says the Centre for Economic and Business Research, which has issued a forecast this morning in which it suggests the hiring in 2010 was just a blip in the long-running decimation of London financial services jobs which began in 2008.

We have presented the figures below. Additional comment seems unnecessary, except to note that 27,063 jobs are expected to disappear between 2010 and 2012, that even in 2016 employment might be below the level of 1999, and that the CEBR is prone to changing its forecasts so things may possibly turn out less bleak than they think.

Cebr City Jobs forecasts (year average)

1998: 289,666

1999: 312,745

2000: 323,018

2001: 312,232

2002: 307,678

2003: 317,102

2004: 324,830

2005: 326,868

2006: 342,968

2007: 354,134

2008: 323,714

2009: 305,375

2010: 315,000

2011: 288,225

2012: 287,937

2013: 288,801

2014: 292,675

2015: 296,084

2016: 299,799

The CEBR says City jobs are defined as:"city type jobs in London'. They include securities dealing, international banking, corporate finance, derivatives and forex activity, fund management (including hedge funds), specialist insurance (e.g. Lloyds) and professional services such as legal, accountancy and consultancy directly supporting other city jobs. They include jobs in Canary Wharf and in the West End as well as those in the Square Mile and do not include non-city-type jobs - e.g. in hairdressers, retail or wine bars - even if they are based within the Square Mile."

AUTHORSarah Butcher

Global Editor

ja
james
28 October 2011
no,The west is stale,no more empire ,the brics are taking over fast
Reply
li
lies, damn lies and statistics
27 October 2011
So the decline started in 2008 but then was a blip in 2010? Hmmmmm, let's think what happened in those 2 years, 2008 = worst part of GFC, 2010 = big reversal in equity markets and general economic conditions.
Now we are again being told, the end is nigh?
I don't agree, I think it is much more likely that IF there is a decline in financial services jobs it will be down to the economic cycle and if that is the case it is likely that we'll have more to worry about (nationally) than morose financial services employment conditions.
I am willing to bet that if you overlaid those figures above with the equity value (or aggregated share price) of the banking sector, you would really see what is happening. When things look bad (as in now) there is pressure to cut costs wherever possible and staff unfortunately are one of the 1st places to look. However, why did we get that blip in 2010? Because firms had actually over-reacted to the situation in 08/09 and slashed jobs when in fact the economy and markets in general were picking up. Fast-forward to 2012, that may well be what we see again.
Reply
AQ
AQD
27 October 2011
Confusing - RBS in the South Back wouldn't count?
"Financial services jobs within Greater London" would be far more understandable and relevant...
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