Will there really be any hiring in 2012? What senior headhunters say about their sectors
It's too early to say with any certainty what will happen to financial services recruitment in 2012: banks are still digesting a difficult Q3 and preparing for more redundancies. Later, they will devise next year's hiring strategy - or not.
However, the lack of clarity doesn't prevent senior headhunting professionals opining about the likely state of recruitment in their sectors in 2012. At this stage, their sentiments are mixed. We've presented them without comment below. Let us know if you agree.
Managing partner of boutique financial services search firm, focused on investment banking (requested anonymity).
"There will be hiring next year - there always is, even in bad years there is upgrading and replacing hiring. There will be very little capacity-type hiring in M&A in 2012, but there will be some strategic hiring. The three huge contributors to M&A revenues are industrials, FIG and energy. Banks are going to want to get those right and will be looking to strengthen their teams.
Specifically, I'd say UBS need to strengthen their team dramatically if they're going to stay in the game. Nomura could benefit from some hiring and Bank of America also has some hires to make. Citi has done most of its M&A hiring, so won't be in the same boat."
John Axworthy, managing director, J. Robert Scott Executive Search
"There will be senior level M&A hiring next year. The major beneficiaries of what's happening now in investment banks will be the independent and mid-sized houses that are able to pay a large proportion of their bonuses in cash. Bankers who've received a high proportion of their bonuses in stock and seen that stock almost halve in value are going to be much more willing than previously to move on."
Russell Clarke, partner at FigTree Search, a fixed income focused search boutique
"No one is being particularly bullish about next year. Right now, everyone is taking stock after a quiet August and no one is talking about their plans. We're expecting some upgrading and maybe some building in emerging markets and FX. The interesting thing will be the extent to which traders in banks continue moving to hedge funds.
Ben Pink, founder of commodities search firm DNA Group
"Investment banks are likely to be hiring commodities salespeople next year, but Basel III and the Volcker Rule mean they are going to be far less interested in hiring traders. Commodities houses are still going to be hiring traders, however."
Oliver Rolfe, managing partner of the Spartan Partnership, and equities focused search firm
"The real question is what will happen this year. Until banks have cut costs and trimmed the middle and back office quite heavily, not a lot of them are going to invest. I'm expecting pockets of hiring over the next 6-8 months, but a lot of the UK equities houses aren't going to be doing much. Larger banks are going to be focused purely on replacement hires as and when people move on. Unfortunately, there's not going to be any real recruitment from anyone until the market picks up."
