The great debate: how small will analyst bonuses be this year?

In ye olden days, banking juniors had heard tell of their bonuses long ago. First and second year analysts were given the measure of their bonuses in June and were free to spend them in July.

But these are not the olden days. It's nearly August and according to recruiters who deal with analysts (but pretend not to and therefore don't want their quotes attributed), junior bankers are still ignorant about their variable remuneration for 2011 even now.

"Everything to do with analyst bonuses has been pushed back," says one. "Traditionally, bonuses were announced in June. This year they're being announced in July - or even the beginning of August - and paid at the end of August."

This is concerning. It's possible that bonuses are being pushed back because management can't agree on how much juniors in corporate finance and M&A ought to be paid. While IBD has had a good year and revenues were up in the first half versus 2010, sales and trading businesses have had a bad year. Money from IBD analysts' bonuses may yet be diverted to help pay all the underperforming salespeople and traders.

This would not be popular.

"M&A is up this year. All that junior bankers know is that they've been working like dogs and they ought to get paid," says one recruiter.

It might not be that bad, however.

The head of another recruitment firm says the general sentiment is that 2011 analyst bonuses will be on a par with 2010 analyst bonuses. Even better, anyone who's underpaid may have the option of moving on. "We're less busy than last year, but there are still plenty of opportunities for junior investment bankers," he insists. "There is hiring."