What Anshu Jain's Investor Workshop says about Deutsche Bank and where you should be working if you don't ever want to lose your job
Yesterday was a special day for Anshu Jain. He ran a Corporate and Investment Bank Investor Workshop in London.
Jain, who is purportedly engaged in 'open warfare' with other potential contenders to replace Josef Ackermann and is therefore trying to impress various people both internally and externally, made a presentation that's you can see in its entirety if you click here.
Alternatively and more briefly, this is what Jain's slides say about the virtues, or not, of being employed by Deutsche and where hiring has and will take place.
1) Staff are being squeezed; shareholders are being prioritised
Deutsche is doing more with less. The cost income ratio is down to 69% from 74% in 2007 and will be less than 65% in the medium term. Flow sales per head in the markets division are up 50%; in global transaction banking they're up 95%.
Even after 2013, Jain thinks he can achieve a pre-tax RoE of more than 20%. This sounds optimistic, particularly when considered that last year UBS produced a pre-tax return on equity of 8.7%.
2) Corporate financiers are being obliged to sell transaction banking products
These days, working at Deutsche Bank is all about efficiency and cross selling.
Corporate finance is selling "more markets and GTB products" and there is "closer coordination" between investment bankers and the treasury sales force.
This seems to be working: headcount across capital markets and treasury services is down 13% from its peak in 2010, but cross-selling revenues are up 20%.
The corollary to this is that if you are an investment banker at Deutsche Bank, you will be obliged to work very closely with your corporate banking and transaction banking colleagues. A similar strategy was reputedly behind several M&A departures at Citigroup last year.
3) While other banks are losing market share, DB is gaining
Jain was keen to point out that Deutsche is great and becoming greater and greater. In no area is the bank losing market share. In every area, Deutsche's market share is stable or growing.
For example, in 2009 it was ranked third in global fixed income; in 2010 it was first. In 2009 it was 9th in global M&A; in 2010 it was 4th. In 2009, Deutsche was 7th across global IDB, now it's 4th too. Deutsche is number one in European cash equities and equity derivatives, and has stayed that way.
4) DB has a giant need for technology expertise
Deutsche is reducing its 'front office risk engines' from 55 in 2008 to 4 by the end of 2013. Risk technology professionals must be required as a result.
It's also only 40% of the way through a target to make all its end user systems accessible via its e-commerce platform, is streamlining its commodities trade processing platforms and is putting a totally new equities order management system in place by 2012.
Much of this may not happen in the UK. Jain says there's also: "Ongoing investment in [the] offshore model."
5) You will probably never lose your job if you work in these sectors
Jain has identified investment banking business areas that are 'stable' and investment banking business areas that are 'cyclical.'
If you work in a stable business area, you could assume that your job will be relatively safe ad infinitum. These areas include:
FX/rates; cash equities; prime finance; lending; origination; advisory; global transaction banking.
6) You may lose your job if you work in these sectors
On the other hand, cyclical business areas could combine highs (bonuses) and lows (redundancies). Avoid them if you are risk averse. They are:
RMBS; credit; money markets; commodities; emerging markets; equity derivatives; dedicated equity; prop trading (expired in 2010 anyway).
7) You are most likely to get employed by Deutsche Bank if you work here
Jain wants to make "strategic investments" across corporate finance, commodities, equities and 'infrastructure.' He does not want to hire anyone else in fixed income.
8) Hiring MDs into M&A works
Jain revealed that Deutsche hired 141 MDs into its corporate finance business between 2008 and 2010. 51 of them went into the Americas, 36 went into Asia and 30 went into the UK. Deutsche's global M&A markets share improved from 4.2% to 5.8% over the same period.