Bonuses in the securities, commodities and commercial banking industries projected to show a moderate increase

Johnson Associates are predicting moderate increases in incentive compensation across the financial services industry this year, but they expect that in most cases, bonuses will remain below the highs of 2007.

The compensation specialists say key drivers impacting bonuses are "the pace of the recent economic recovery, varying impact of regulation on business activities both globally and regionally, mix of business, and ongoing uncertainty in world markets."

As for where they expect bonuses to be up the most, they've singled out fixed-income due to strong results in commodities; asset management because of the equity inflows and growth of assets under management; hedge funds from improved performance; private equity which saw an increase in investment activity; and M&A where backlogs are robust even if current activity has been subdued.

Here are Johnson's 'incentive compensation' predictions in full.

Investment banking advisory: Up 5-15%

Investment banking underwriting: Up 5-10%

Equities: Up 5-10%

Fixed income: Up 10-15%

Prime brokerage: Up 5-10%

Equities asset management: Up 10-15%

Fixed income asset management: Up 5-10%

Prime brokerage: Up 5-10%

Hedge funds: Up 10-15%

Private equity: Up 10-15%