Was that really it? Has investment banking hiring already finished for 2011?
If you're based in the UK, you may be inclined to take out a deckchair. Not only is the weather unseasonably warm but we're entering a period of abundant bank holidays.
The effect of all this is that the City of London will effectively close down this Thursday and that it will effectively reopen on May 3rd. There won't be much in the way of recruitment in between.
"The next couple of weeks are going to be very quiet," says John Axworthy, managing director of the financial services practice at search firm J. Robert Scott. "Right now it feels a little bit like Christmas. After the bank holidays are over, it's going to take a little time for everything to get going again."
May may be too late
The only problem is that once everything gets going again in May, it might be too late for any strategic hiring initiatives.
If a bank decides to recruit in mid-May, it will be June or July before it can unearth candidates. Most of those candidates will have at least a three month notice period (SocGen investment bankers allegedly all have a 5 month notice period), making it September or November before they're behind desks.
But by September or November, it will be too late in the year for banks to hire someone out of this year's budget - particularly if they, inevitably, expect to have the entirety of this year's bonus bought out.
"There will still be some opportunistic and strategically important hiring in the front office," says Axworthy. "But most new recruitment mandates at director level and above are now are going to be handed out in September, with a view to bringing people on in early 2012."
Or May will be great
On the other hand, some people predict a rush of recruitment once the bank holidays are out of the way.
"It's been very quiet in January and February and a lot of people have gone away now," says Zaheer Ebrahim at equity-focused search firm Kennedy Associates. "I suspect there will be a rush of recruitment in May before the hiring window closes at the end of June."
One equity derivatives headhunter tells us he's very optimistic about May hiring. "We had several mandates put on hold after the Japanese earthquake while people waited to see how it would play out," he says. "But banks have come back to us in the past two weeks and indicated they'd like to go ahead. May is going to be very busy as a result."
Equally, with banks like Morgan Stanley, Nomura and RBS paying late bonuses or tranches that vest over the summer, resignations may yet stimulate late hiring - hopefully.
Where front office hiring should happen from May
Based on conversations with various headhunters, here's where we understand front office hiring should happen once the Royal Wedding's over.
IBD:
DC Advisory Partners (formerly Close Brothers) expected to hire 3-5 MDs in M&A this year. Citi, BofA Merrill, Nomura and Jefferies also likely to hire.
Cash equities:
RBC said to be still actively hiring equity researchers and salespeople. Citigroup still hiring in equity research. Potential for research recruitment at UBS as new head of research Mark Stockdale settles into his role.
Equity derivatives:
UBS is definitely hiring under Yassine Bouhara, but is rumoured to be mostly recruiting disaffected and unemployed people from Deutsche Bank, where Yassine used to work. Potential equity derivatives hiring at Deutsche is understood to have been diluted by the fact that Dixit Joshi, hired last year as head of equities for EMEA, has been moved to Asia. Both Goldman and RBS are understood to be hiring for UCITS funds.
FICC
Mostly replacement hiring, with some banks trimming headcount now to make room for upgrading in future (with Nomura expected to be particularly aggressive here). Commodities hiring is happening, but it's mostly churn; BAML may hire in commodities having identified it as an area of underperformance in last week's conference call. FX recruitment said to be steady at a residual level.
