We paid 40% of our people a zero bonus; they still haven't left

2011 is turning into the year in which everyone was expected to change jobs after bonuses, but no one has.

As we reported at the end of last year, it was supposed that a lot of people had deluded expectations about 2010 bonuses and that when they found out precisely how paltry their real amount was, they'd resign.

This has not turned out to be the case.

"Turnover is much reduced compared to what we'd expected," says the head of recruitment at a European bank which didn't pay particularly well. "We've lost fewer people than anticipated in all business areas."

The chief executive of one financial services recruitment company tells us several banks have complained about a lack of turnover and that front office hiring is moribund as a result of it. "One bank told me they'd paid 40% of their people zeros and were still waiting for a chunk of them to leave," he says.

Zombie rationality

Staying on when you've been given a clear indication that you are not valued invites the accusation that you are a zombie.

And yet.

In today's world, it's far more rational than previously to hang around when your bonus is vacant.

You'll still be able to collect your salary, which is now a lot higher than before. And if you leave, it's not entirely clear where you'll go: RBC, Jefferies and various Russian banks are hiring, but there's a reluctance to move down a tier, or two.

"Once you've gone to RBC, you just can't get back to Goldman or Morgan Stanley," reflects the search firm CEO sadly.

Zombie implications

The failure to move on means two things: less churn-related hiring; compulsory redundancies.

The head of recruitment says redundancies are coming, but not in large numbers. Lee Thacker, at search firm Silvermine Partners, says there were a lot of expectations that people would walk out in disappointment, but the reality is there's nowhere to go to.

"The pending cuts are getting more pending," he reflects.