Based on comparative full year results, here's who fully deserves to be paid for 2010, and who doesn't
As a follow-on to our previous article extrapolating pay deservingness from comparative fourth quarter performance, here's something similar for the full year.
Helpful analysts at Nomura have calculated the increase/decrease in clean revenues by business area for each of the banks to have reported so far. They show that most businesses did badly last year, but that a few bucked the trend and did very well. Equally, some
businesses performed far worse than others.
The most deserving
1) Deutsche Bank equities staff
On average, revenues in equities sales and trading fell 11% last year. At Deutsche, they rose 17%. Someone at Deutsche surely deserves recognition for this.
2) UBS FICC staff
After hiring 420 FICC staff last year, including 225 MDs and EDs, it would be disastrous if UBS didn't see experience an outstanding improvement in its fixed income, currencies and commodities revenues. Fortunately, it did. According to Nomura, clean FICC revenues at UBS rose 14% last year when measured in Swiss francs. Across the market as a whole they fell by an average of 23%.
3) Deutsche Bank underwriting and M&A staff
Deutsche also ought to pay its M&A and capital markets staff well for 2010. Year-on-year revenues in its M&A and underwriting business rose 14% in 2010, compared to an average 3% decline across competitors.
The least deserving:
1) Citigroup equities
Citigroup's building up its equities business. It's easy to see why: last year, revenues in the area fell 31%, versus a market average decline of 11%.
2) Goldman Sachs FICC
Goldman FICC staff would undoubtedly argue that their year-on-year results were adversely affected by an exceptional 2009, but there's no getting away from the fact that 2010 was very poor. Year-on-year clean FICC revenues fell 45% vs. a market average decline of 23%.
3) Citigroup M&A and underwriting
Citigroup didn't have a great year for M&A either, with many of its senior European M&A staff leaving. Year on year revenues in its M&A and underwriting business fell 20%, versus a market average decline of 3%.
% change in clean equities revenues, local currency, 2009-2010
DBK: 17%
UBS: -13%
NOM: -20%
MS: 6%
GS: -26%
JPM: -5%
BAC: -15%
C: -31%
Average: -11%
% change in clean FICC revenues, local currency, 2009-2010
NOM: -19%
JPM: -22%
UBS: 14%
GS: -45%
DBK: -25%
BAC: -32%
MS: -22%
C: -29%
Average: -23%
% change in clean underwriting and M&A revenues, local currency, 2009-2010
UBS -2%
NOM 3%
MS - 4%
DBK 14%
GS -3%
C - 20%
JPM - 14%
BAC - 1%
Average: -3%
Source: Nomura