THE OUTSIDER: 2011 - bigger, better, duller?

I love this time of year. After all the uncertainty, the hard work, the effort, the lobbying, this is when we all get paid. Whatever might have been said (or simply alluded to) earlier in the year, will finally be exposed as truth or fiction. Payday is when we all have clarity.

And once that is out of the way, there is the future to think about. In 2011 the industry will start motoring again. Parts of it already have, with almost indecent haste in the wake of the bail-out. There are fewer, larger firms, and they are on their way to being much better capitalised. Rather than lending to small businesses or doing whatever else it is the politicians want, the banks are seeking to rebuild their balance sheets. Let's hope the euro crisis allows them to.

Cynics will say that they need to rebuild so that they will be ready to plunge into whatever the next big thing is, once the dust has settled and memories have faded just enough, but I'm not so sure. This was a proper crisis and it will take a while for the wounds to heal.

Which is not to say that nothing will change in 2011. A lot of regulators are enjoying their moment in the sun, overseas finance centres sniff a chance to profit at London's expense, and the biggest firms are working out the regulatory and tax arbitrages involved in moving overseas. Politicians who have traditionally defended the City - nine per cent of UK GDP and thirteen per cent of the Chancellor's tax receipts - instead indulge in banker bashing and are looking the other way. Who cares - the City can take it, can't it? Probably.

But there will be winners in 2011. The biggest will be the revenue generators who always thrive in the intense competitive environment of the Square Mile. But an awful lot of them will be Compliance and Legal, whose word for the time being will be law. Most firms are going to focus on keeping their heads down, avoiding controversy, and profiting quietly with as few people noticing as possible.

The new Bribery Act has added still more scope for muscle flexing by people once described to me by a senior colleague as barnacles on the hull of a racing yacht, adding to its drag through the water and slowing it down. If they can keep us out of trouble, all power to them, but do they really have to scrutinise all of our entertaining?

What does it all add up to? Bigger battalions, making larger profits, but an official no fun policy and no controversy. Oh, and more paper and less cash in that bonus.

If that fails to set the pulse racing, I can hardly blame you, but it's still a better place to be working than almost anywhere else. Happy New Year.