FRIDAY'S KILLER QUESTION: You start with no money and play a game where you throw a dice over and over again....
On Friday afternoons we're continuing with recent tradition and posting cryptic questions from 7city Learning. Add your answers in the comments box at the bottom of the page. Praise will be heaped upon the person who provides the correct answer first. We'll add the official answer to the bottom of this article on Monday afternoon.
You start with no money and play a game in which you throw a dice over and over again. For each throw, if 1 appears you win 1, if appears you win 2, etc. but if 6 appears you lose all your money and the game ends.
When is the optimal stopping time and what are your expected winnings?
ANSWER
Suppose you have won an amount so far and you have to decide whether to continue. If you roll again you have an expected winnings on the next throw of
(15-S)/6
So as long as you have less that 15 you should continue.
Calculating the expected winnings is harder.
You will stop at 15,16, 17, 18 and 19. You can't get to 20 because that would mean playing when you have 15, and throwing a five. So we must calculate the probabilities of reaching each of these numbers without throwing a six.
At this point we defer to our good friend Excel. A simple simulation of the optimal strategy yields and expected value for this game of 6.18.