What will be hot in 2011 in South Africa?

South Africa starts the year in good shape: it has shaken off the recession after only two quarters of negative growth, the economy is well-run, interest rates are at their lowest for decades, the rand is strong and inflation low. The country is still basking in the glow of the success of the World Cup in 2010, which has made not only tourists but also companies and investors discover its existence - and its potential. This is why first on our list of who is likely to do well in 2011 is:

- South Africa:

The positive impact of the success of the World Cup will be felt in 2011: as the country's profile has been raised more banks are sniffing around with a view to opening offices in Johannesburg, notably Middle Eastern, Chinese and Indian institutions. "The country's image has been enhanced and this will make it easier to bring much-needed talent in from abroad, both South African expatriates and foreigners," says Martin Westcott, managing director of PE Corporate Services, a South African management consultancy. "I am very positive about the year ahead because South Africa is in better shape than it has been for a while, especially compared to the developed world."

- Standard Chartered

The emerging market specialist has already done well in 2010, particularly in M&A in Africa, but its achievements have been overshadowed by its failure to catch Nedbank in its net. This has brought back memories of StanChart's battle for control of Absa five years ago, which it lost to Barclays. Now that HSBC has withdrawn from the race for Nedbank, this could be the year that StanChart grabs its long-coveted foothold in South Africa.

The expectation is that StanChart will revisit the deal, as Nedbank's corporate banking and retail mix is perfect for them. A new offer could finally land the prize in 2011.

- Investment banking

2010 was not a stellar year, with low business volumes, investor uncertainty and the distraction of the World Cup, but expectations are the sector will do much better in 2011. "Volumes were not that high in 2010, but strategic hiring according to growth plans has absolutely taken place, therefore 2011 looks promising both in terms of business and of increased recruitment volumes," says Phryne Williams, managing director of Capital Assignments, a specialist financial services recruitment firm.

On the negative side, unless 2011 springs a few surprises the following are unlikely to sparkle:

- Standard Bank:

Standard Bank is expecting to save R2.3bn from the recent job cuts and South Africa's largest bank may well emerge leaner, meaner and more efficient from its cost-cutting exercise. But the impact of its surprise decision to retrench 2,000 people will be felt for a long time. "It came out of the blue so it really shocked people," says Mike Atter, associate director of recruitment consultancy Robert Walters SA. "So from a recruitment perspective, the view of the marketplace is that people might not want to go and join Standard Bank. As good people here are spoilt for choice, they will probably prefer to work somewhere else."

- Bonuses

South Africa never had the excesses of the City or Wall Street so there was no violent backlash against bankers' remuneration. But the joint call for more regulation and more restraint is being heard loud and clear from Europe and the US. South African banks want to be seen to be in line with international best practice. The result is that there is a lot of uncertainty in the market about what people will actually get in the next bonus round in Q1.

"The outlook for bonuses is not that good given the tougher economic conditions and retrenchments that have taken place in banking," says Veronique Parkin, partner at Heidrick & Struggles in Johannesburg. "We do follow the rest of the world and the controversy relating to investment bankers' bonuses has filtered through to South Africa, plus the gap between rich and poor is increasing and this needs to be addressed and be seen to be being addressed."

- Goldman Sachs

"I have heard that Goldman Sachs is weaker than it should be in emerging markets," says Parkin. In a year in which there was a scramble for Africa among foreign banks, GS did not make a splash. In the spring it made a very high-profile catch getting Tito Mboweni, the former governor of the SA Reserve Bank, on board as international adviser.

Since then, "Goldman Sachs have been very quiet," says Atter. "There has been no recruitment activity, no office move, no press presence." No wonder experts fear the GS guys it may have fallen too far behind to catch up in 2011. Unless of course they pull a rabbit out of a hat, which is not to be ruled out.