Staff movement in Q1: How much, why, and which banks?

Look out for an active employment market after the summer holiday season. Levels of candidate movement in early 2011 are expected to be even higher than they were in Q1 2010.

But why the rush? "While we will witness the traditional movement of candidates post-bonus, there are also a number of people who have sat tight in roles throughout the GFC who only now see that the time is opportune to make a career move," says Jane McNeill, senior regional director of Hays Banking.

There is also more stability in the market and candidates are more confident than they were a year ago, she adds. Moreover, employers remain replacement driven. "They are increasing their headcount in areas that were cut during the GFC. This means there are plenty of solid opportunities on offer to tempt candidates who may not otherwise have considered moving," explains McNeill.

What are the main motivations to jump ship in the current market? "People will move if their efforts over the past couple of years are not recognised - be it monetary, career development, flexibility etc. Many feel that they have worked harder than ever through the GFC and remained loyal, so now is the time for reward," comments Sarah Wapling, client advisor, Marshall McAdam.

McNeill adds that base salaries are also a key factor. A reluctance to increase pay has seen employers start to lose out on top talent to competitors at offer stage. "Salary flexibility will be necessary if employers are to retain and attract the best people. In addition, the number of counter offers is also increasing, allowing candidates to negotiate higher rates. This is also fuelling candidate confidence."

Banks and bonuses

But of course, particularly in the front office, a decision to change jobs is often about your bonus. Bankers who missed out on the big deals in 2010, or who specialised in less lucrative industries, will be more tempted to look elsewhere

"You may receive a higher bonus than other members of your team if you were more involved with the deal process or were rated top in your sector by your competitors and clients. The resource sector will highlight this fact," says Caan Krsztew-Ivanow, search consultant, H Capital.

And which banks should we have our eyes on in terms of Q1 movement?

"UBS is probably a group that needs to be wary. There has been significant cutting through its teams, and stories of poor culture and general unhappiness seem widespread. If an opportunity is presented to a UBS person, they are likely to investigate," says one headhunter who asked not to me named.

Another anonymous recruiter remarks: "Macquarie and Morgan Stanley have seen a lot of growth over the last year so it will be interesting to see if they receive what has been promised. UBS is still going through a lot of restructuring, so bonuses will be up in the air. Among the institutional big banks, Westpac will be the big loser of staff."