Cryan's gone, so is UBS is going to pay atrociously, again?

This is just a thought and it is one that may be borne of rank paranoia on behalf of investment bankers employed by UBS, but it is one that's worth thinking.

Does the departure of John Cryan, UBS's erstwhile CFO, who promised in October that the bank WOULD pay its investment bankers this year, signify that this won't happen after all?

This is particularly worth thinking given that Cryan's been replaced by Tom Naratil, formerly the CFO of UBS's US wealth management business. As a committed wealth management type, Naratil may not be as sympathetic to the notion that UBS's underperforming investment bankers still need to get paid.

In October, Cryan said the bank had learned from its nasty experience of 2008, when it paid next to nothing and lots of investment bankers subsequently left. Because of this, he said, the investment bank would pay no matter what.

But UBS has a big cost problem: salaries in the investment bank have been whacked up; nearly 1,000 people have been hired. In the third quarter, the cost-income ratio in the investment bank was 98% once one-off mitigating factors are eliminated.

For a new CFO, it's easy to see where costs could be taken out of the system: pay salaries, no bonuses. Just a thought.