If you want to get paid, go to Asia - or Latin America

Compensation in London has traditionally been high. Goldman Sachs, for example, appears to pay its London people more than it pays its people anywhere else.

Conversely, compensation in Asia has traditionally been low. This is partly the result of (lower) taxation, partly the result of historical norms.

However, after a year of poor performance in Europe, this year's pay round is likely to see a rebalancing in favour of emerging markets. The PIIGS crisis has knocked the wind out of EMEA revenues. Asian business has taken off.

Asia strong, Europe not

JPMorgan's investment banking revenues are down 29% in EMEA this year. In Asia, they're up 6%.

In Morgan Stanley's 3Q call, James Gorman noted the huge growth they'd experienced in Asia, where advisory business was, "up 180%" and credit and FX were up 61%. There was, "real broad strength" in Asia, said Gorman, and the region had become strategically more important to the company long term.

Meanwhile, David Viniar, CFO at Goldman said the firm would like to bigger in China, but was being held back by trying to build the right infrastructure and find the right people.

Emerging markets are more profitable

There are signs too that not only are emerging markets faster growing, they're more profitable.

At Citigroup's institutional client business, income in Latin America was 42% of revenues in the first nine months of this year. In Asia it was 35%; in Europe it was 33%.

HSBC appears to bear this out. As one of the best established Asian banks, its ROE in the region is 35% according to Goldman Sachs. This compares to just 17% in Europe.

Our recent bonus expectations survey suggested bankers in Hong Kong and Singapore are most optimistic about their bonuses this year. 70% are expecting an increase. While this would look deluded in Europe, in Asia it may be about right.