Sadly, you're a sucker if you didn't get a guarantee this year

As we noted earlier, banks have done a lot of hiring in 2010.

A lot of that hiring happened in the first two quarters. And a lot of the people who were hired came on guarantees. And then there were also plenty of buybacks, also involving guarantees.

As a result, a lot of this year's bonus pool is already committed.

According to headhunters, the guarantee situation is particularly acute at UBS and Barclays Capital. Initially, UBS tried mostly hiring the unemployed in order to avoid guarantees, but it soon gave up on this.

BarCap is also said to have been paying guarantees as part of its equities and IBD build out.

Rumour has it that BofA has devoted a chunk of its bonus pool to guarantees following the addition of Christian Meissner and various recruits like

Vinit Sahni to its FICC business.

However, the BofA guarantee situation is thought to be substantially less problematic than at UBS and BarCap. With compensation pools down around 20%, and 24% on a per head basis, anyone without a guarantee at these banks is in danger of being sacrificed at the altar of cost control.

And there won't be many guarantees next year

Omitting to get a guarantee in 2010 looks even more of an oversight in light of the fact that the FSA is attempting to extinguish them in 2011.

From next year, the FSA's latest compensation consultation document says guarantees can only be issued to new joiners in "exceptional circumstances."

It also appears to outlaw buybacks.

"As things stand, an existing employer can only offer retention bonuses if they are going through a restructuring and have a programme in place to retain staff," says Nicholas Dent, a partner at law firm Barlow Lyde and Gilbert. "They'd need, for example, to proactively identify key managers and to offer retention payments to them. The FSA doesn't appear to allow reactive retention bonuses for people who are resigning."

This could yet change. Either way, 2010 looks like the guarantee's goodbye party. It's a shame if you didn't get one.