Discover your dream Career
For Recruiters

FRIDAY'S KILLER QUESTION: I have a revolver which holds up to six bullets....

Every Friday (starting today), we'll be posting challenging and cryptic questions for you to answer, provided for us by 7city Learning. Post your answers in the comments box at the bottom of the page. Maximum kudos will be provided to the person who provides the correct answer first.

We'll add the correct answer to the bottom of this article on Monday afternoon.

I have a revolver which holds up to six bullets. There are two bullets in the gun, in adjacent chambers. I am going to play Russian roulette (on my own!). I spin the barrel so that I don't know where the bullets are and then pull the trigger. Assuming that I don't shoot myself with this first attempt, am I now better off pulling the trigger a second time without spinning or spin the barrel first?

ANSWER:

Whenever you spin the barrel you clearly have a two in six or one in three chance of landing on a chamber containing a bullet. If you spin and pull the trigger on an empty chamber, what are the chances of the next chamber containing a bullet? You are equally likely to be at any one of the four empty chambers but only the last of these is adjacent to a chamber containing a bullet. So there is now one in four chance of the next pull of the trigger being fatal. Conclusion is that you should not spin the barrel. After surviving two pulls of the trigger without spinning the barrel the odds become one in three again, and it doesn't matter whether you spin or not (at least in the probabilistic sense). After surviving that 'shot' it becomes fifty-fifty and if you are successful four times in a row then the next shot will definitely be fatal.

author-card-avatar
AUTHOR7cityLearning Insider Comment
  • mi
    millennia
    26 October 2010

    Um, this is about risk, right? How about putting the gun down? Whatever your clever little sums, you put the gun down, you don't get a bullet through the head. What's the benefit of an empty chamber? You don't die? Huh: Where's the reward? Now, if it was hit this button and you could lose money, or you could make a million, I might be tempted, and THEN do the sums.

  • Tm
    Tmoney
    25 October 2010

    You are better off not to spin again.

    If you spin again you have a 33% (i.e. 2/6) chance of getting a bullet.

    If you do not spin again you have a 25% (i.e. .25*(0+0+0+1)) chance of getting a bullet.

  • It
    ItsNotHardPeople
    25 October 2010

    The second guy to post (RB) is correct - its the same either way

  • Un
    Una
    25 October 2010

    @The people saying you should spin again. This is incorrect, as you guys seem to derive the notion that its bullets out of a hat, so one bullet gone, only 5 more to choose from, however this does not include the info that the bullets are adjacent.

  • ea
    eamonfahy
    25 October 2010

    Better off pulling trigger again without spinng.
    Having pulled the trigger the first time, we know it was one of four empty chambers. Only ONE of the four empties is such that a bullet is next up. Therefore there is a 3/4 (75%) chance that the next chamber is also empty.
    However if you spin again you are back to the original 4/6 (66%) chance of getting and empty chamber.

Sign up to Morning Coffee!

Coffee mug

The essential daily roundup of news and analysis read by everyone from senior bankers and traders to new recruits.

Sign up to Morning Coffee!

Coffee mug

The essential daily roundup of news and analysis read by everyone from senior bankers and traders to new recruits.