11 conclusions from the eFinancialCareers bonus survey, including the fact that most people expect to be paid MORE for 2010
The omens for 2010 compensation aren't good, but this didn't appear to trouble any of the 5,671 global and 537 UK-based financial services employees who responded to our bonus survey this year.
The notable conclusions of the survey are as follows:
1) Most financial services professionals in the UK expect a bigger bonus this year
57% of UK financial services professionals expect to receive a larger bonus for 2010 than 2009. 17% of people expect their bonus to increase by more than 50%.
2) UK financial services professionals are more optimistic than their counterparts in the US, less optimistic than bankers in Asia
In the US only 50% of respondents were expecting their bonus to increase. In Singapore and Hong Kong 69% and 71% respectively are expecting an increase.
US bankers' comparative despondency comes despite the fact that restrictions on bonuses in the US are less onerous than in Europe.
3) FICC bankers are comparatively pessimistic about their bonuses
'Only' 50% of UK-based financial services professionals working in fixed income, currencies and commodities expect their 2010 bonus to be higher than their bonus for 2009. Only 14% expect it to be more than 50% higher. Most UK FICC bankers (31%) expect this year's bonus to be the same as last year's - despite the fact that 2009 was an exceptionally good year for FICC.
4) IBD bankers are comparatively optimistic about their bonuses
65% of people working in UK M&A and capital markets roles expect this year's bonus to be higher than last year's. 30% of UK IBD bankers expect it to be more than 50% higher.
5) Even senior UK front office bankers expect to receive a high proportion of their 2010 bonus in cash
Despite last week's policy statement from the Committee of European Banking Supervisors (CEBS), which said cash bonuses will limited to 20-30% of an individual's total bonus from January 2011, 54% of senior front office bankers (defined as anyone with more than 6 years' experience) still expect to receive more than half their bonuses in cash (excluding everyone working in hedge funds).
6) Senior UK front office bankers are also deluded about deferrals
Even though both the FSA and CEBS are mandating deferrals of anything from 3-5 years, 37% of all front office bankers and 29% of senior front office bankers think absolutely none of their bonus will be deferred this year.
7) Big salary increases are far from universal
Only 25% of all UK-based front office bankers, senior ones included, have had their salaries increased by more than 30%.
8) Most UK front office bankers don't retire very young
44% of UK-based senior front office bankers expect to retire before 55; only 27% expect to retire before 50. 52% of senior front office bankers expect to retire later as a result of bonus regulations.
9) Longer term, people don't expect compensation to suffer
60% of UK front office bankers expect their total compensation to be higher in three years' time. Despite concerns about increased capital requirements and their impact on compensation, only 6% are expecting their total pay to decline more than 30%.
10) UK hedge funds are the place to be
83% of UK-based hedge fund employees expect to receive all this year's bonus in cash. 71% of UK-based hedge fund employees expect absolutely none of this year bonus to be deferred.
11) Wall Street and Asia are the place to be
Whilst bankers in the City of London are labouring under UK and EU bonus restrictions, bankers in Asia and the US aren't.
78% of all US respondents expected their bonus to be available immediately in cash; 70% expected absolutely none of their bonus to be deferred. In Hong Kong, the comparable percentages were 79% and 60% respectively.
