Where to position yourself if you DON'T want to work at Goldman Sachs
If you do want to work at Goldman Sachs, life is easy. The Firm is doing well. And according to analysts at JPMorgan, it will be by far the largest player in fixed income trading, equity trading, and IBD in 2010, accounting for 18.4% of total revenues.
But what if you don't want to work at Goldman Sachs? What if you think The Firm sounds a bit like a bad version of a 1970s police serial? Or if you want to work somewhere a little more European?
There are alternatives.
Although Goldman is expected to remain the dominant player in every single market area between now and 2012, JPMorgan analysts show how they expect other banks' presence to pan out.
We've added their figures below, in non-tabular form to prevent firewalling. The brief conclusions are as follows...
Going up in IBD: (Goldman Sachs), Morgan Stanley, Barclays Capital
Going down in IBD: Deutsche, HSBC, RBS
Going up in FICC: UBS, Deutsche, Credit Suisse, RBS
Going down in FICC: (Goldman Sachs), Barclays Capital
Going up in equities No one, consistently.
Going down in equities Deutsche, Barclays, HSBC, RBS
Separately, Morgan Stanley analysts have a report out today emphasising the virtues of working for market leaders. Under Basel III, they predict that, 'high scale "flow monsters" with efficient platforms will be advantaged in trading as more business is centrally cleared to reduce capital intensity... Scale will be critical.'
MS analysts also reiterate their feeling that BarCap may have been a bit over-optimistic: they only expect BarCap to achieve 40% of its target revenues, meaning it may have to 'reflect' on its plans.
IBD, predicted market shares 2010-2012
GS: 2010 15.4%; 2011 15.7%; 2012 17.3%
MS: 2010 13.6%; 2011 14.4%; 2012 15.5%
UBS: 2010 14.8%; 2011 15.2%; 2012 14.3%
CS: 2010 12.4%; 2011 11.5%; 2012 10.8%
DB: 2010 1.7%; 2011 1.6%; 2012 1.5%
BNPP: 2010 1.7%; 2011 1.6%; 2012 1.5%
SG: 2010 0.8%; 2011 0.7%; 2012 0.7%
BARC: 2010 12.7%; 2011 12.2%; 2012 12.5%
HSBC: 2010 10.9%; 2011 9.6%; 2012 9.3%
RBS: 2010 10.4%; 2011 8.1%; 2012 7.8%
Equities, predicted market shares 2010-2012
GS: 2010 20.8%; 2011 22%; 2012 21.9%
MS: 2010 11.7%; 2011 11.4%; 2012 12.4%
UBS: 2010 11.2%; 2011 10.8%; 2012 10.8%
CS: 2010 14.9%; 2011 14.3%; 2012 14.3%
DB: 2010 9.5%; 2011 9.1%; 2012 8.9%
BNPP: 2010 6.6%; 2011 7.3%; 2012 7.0%
SG: 2010 8.8%; 2011 9.3%; 2012 9.0%
BARC: 2010 7.4%; 2011 7.2%; 2012 7.1%
HSBC: 2010 5.5%; 2011 5.2%; 2012 5.0%
RBS: 2010 3.6%; 2011 3.5%; 2012 3.4%
FICC, predicted market shares 2010-2012
FICC, predicted market shares 2010-2012
GS: 2010 21.3%; 2011 21.0%; 2012 19.9%
MS: 2010 9.2%; 2011 8.4%; 2012 8.0%
UBS: 2010 6.2%; 2011 6.7%; 2012 7.0%
CS: 2010 7.4%; 2011 8.3%; 2012 8.7%
DB: 2010 14.7%; 2011 14.9%; 2012 15.5%
BNPP: 2010 7.4%; 2011 7.0%; 2012 7.2%
SG: 2010 3.6%; 2011 3.1%; 2012 3.3%
BARC: 2010 14.0%; 2011 13.0%; 2012 12.5%
HSBC: 2010 8.5%; 2011 8.5%; 2012 9.1%
RBS: 2010 7.7%; 2011 9.1%; 2012 8.9%
Source: JPMorgan
