As part of the two year anniversary of Lehman's collapse, and in the spirit of nostalgia about times past, we have been looking at compensation per head, bank by bank, since the lost idyll of 2007.
Based on the proportion of total compensation accrued by each bank in the first half of 2009, compared to the amount it paid for the entirety of last year, we've then used first half compensation figures to extrapolate likely pay per head for the whole of 2010.
The conclusion: based on its pattern of compensation accrual in 2009, Goldman Sachs bankers are in danger of being paid not NEARLY as well as they used to be.
Percentage change in compensation per head, 2007-2010e
Goldman Sachs: -44%
Credit Suisse: -37%
Compensation per head 2007-2010e
Goldman Sachs: 2010e $373k; 2009: $498k; 2008: $317k; 2007: $661k
Credit Suisse (investment bank): 2010e: CHF312k; 2009: CHF446k; 2008: CHF357k; 2007: CHF495k
Deutsche (investment bank): 2010e: €353k; 2009: €446k; 2008: €236k; 2007: €417k
UBS (investment bank): 2010e: CHF445k; 2009: CHF355k; 2008: CHF271k; 2007: CHF475k
JPMorgan: 2010e: $362k; 2009: $498k; 2008: $317k; 2007: $417k
BarCap: 2010e: 232k; 2009: 196k; 2008: 186k; 182k
Needless to say, our extrapolations are not infallible. Last year, Goldman didn't accrue anything in compensation during the fourth quarter; this year it may accrue something. Equally, following concern about escalating compensation costs, BarCap may trim accruals in the second half.
Nevertheless, the data does highlight just how well some people were paid in 2007, and just how unlikely it is that anyone will paid anything close in 2010.