Ten reasons why investment bankers WILL have something to do sometime soon

If you work in capital markets or M&A, you may feel driven to shed a tear for 2010, which following the cancellation of the Pru deal is looking as lively as a poached egg. Fees in both areas are depressingly meagre. Nor is there much hope of any respite until at least September

Into this arid landscape has, however, ridden US banking analyst Dick Bove, full of investment banking cheer. He thinks all is not lost for investment bankers. This is why:

1) There will be FIG M&A

Banks will need to restructure following financial services regulation. In the US, banks consumer finance businesses will be jettisoned, and investment management will be reshaped.

2) There will be M&A driven by low growth

Companies in low growth industries will need to restructure to escape excess capacity and rebuild profitability.

3) There will be M&A driven by transportation issues

Transport companies will need to find less energy intensive methods of moving things around. The industry will restructure in the process.

4) There will be activity driven by energy issues

The energy industry's search for less carbon focused fuels will increase. The industry will restructure in the process.

5) There will be M&A related to the pharmaceutical industry

The pharmaceutical industry needs new patents. M&A is one way to achieve this.

6) There will be M&A in the real estate industry

The real estate industry needs to restructure.

7) There will be capital raising for technology projects

Money for new projects is always needed.

8) There will be capital raising for investment purposes

Capital expenditure is needed to avoid obsolescence.

9) Europe must restructure its debt

It seems likely that this will happen, sometime soon.

10) Money is cheap

Money is cheap, and it's plentiful, deals can only increase.

London M&A headhunters say banks are recruiting M&A bankers in preparation for the moment that these factors finally take effect. "BarCap are still one of the biggest hirers," says one.

Macquarie, Goldman Sachs, SocGen and Moelis have also been hiring, while Citigroup has been haemorrhaging staff from its TMT team and will need to replace them.

"There's been a definite increase in demand for analysts, associates and senior VPs," says Julia Tustian, an M&A recruiter at Shepherd Little. "But there's still an air of caution. People are being very selective about who they take on."