Lunchtime Links: Last year's bonus tax will hit this year's bonuses

Following last night's Mansion House speech, it's now certain that a new tax on the UK banking system will be introduced, although its form and enormity remain indeterminate. It's also certain that there will "a demand for further restraint" on pay and bonuses, although just how much restraint and just how it's to be demanded are also unclear.

At the same time, however, the effects of last year's bonus restraints are only just becoming clear.

The Financial Times points out that the UK bonus tax, which was expected to raise 550m when conceived, is now expected to raise 2.5bn. Moreover, its effects will hit this year's results: JPMorgan's second quarter earnings per share are expected to fall by 18% as a result of the $525m the bank's estimated to have spent on the tax.

Coming at a time when losses are thought to be rising in fixed income businesses and IBD has yet to recover, this spectre from 2009 may have an unwelcome impact on bonuses in 2010 - particularly if another punitive UK banking levy is imposed in next week's budget.

The new financial regulatory architecture. (Financial Times)

Martin Wolf and Bill Winters will help decide whether banks should be broken up. (Telegraph)

Hector Sants will become deputy governor of the Bank - just in time to apply for the top job when King retires. (Telegraph)

For the two-year period of transition to the new system the FSA will not have its eye on the ball. (BBC)

JP Morgan expects to double its revenues from Asian markets in three years. (South China Morning Post)

Asian private banks really should talk a little less about their hiring plans. (Bloomberg)

Mitsui & Co will boost its commodities staff by precisely 6.4% this year. (Bloomberg)

UBS has hired a new head of emerging markets credit from BofA Merrill. (BusinessWeek)

HSBC has hired a senior ECM banker from RBS. (Financial News)

SocGen has hired a head of M&A for Germany from BofA Merrill, and a head of M&A for Italy from Morgan Stanley. (Financial News)

Macquarie has lost some more people. (Alphaville)