It's ok: banks are still hiring, for the moment
Markets are nervous, LIBOR is rising, and comparisons persist with the Lehman crisis.
Do banks really want to recruit in this environment?
Apparently, yes.
Seasonal slowdowns not withstanding, a straw poll of five heads of recruitment at major investment banks in London suggests most banks have either made no alterations whatsoever to this year's hiring plans, or have failed to communicate any changes to their most senior recruiters. Four out of five of those we asked said everything is continuing as normal. Only one reported a, "re-evaluation" in light of recent events.
Reassuring comments emanating from the 'everything's fine' contingent, included such platitudes as, "It's business as usual," and, "Our hiring plans haven't changed at all since the beginning of the year."
There may be good reason for this. The 2010 hiring season started late this year in the UK: banks were constrained from recruiting by the bonus tax until April 6th. As a result, hiring has been compressed into the post-April period, and there's now a need to fill the gaps left by those who've moved in the past eight weeks.
Set against this, however, the outlook is increasingly uncertain. Prior to today's rebound, the sovereign debt crisis was thought to be taking a toll on sales and trading revenues. Earlier this week, Morgan Stanley analysts said they expected underlying investment banking revenues at Credit Suisse to be down 23% year on year.
"All banks are re-evaluating their hiring plans," says the head of recruitment at one investment bank.
Maybe they're just not admitting it.