EDITOR'S TAKE: It's hard to conceive how a 'progressive coalition' could be anything but bad for the City
It's ironic that the Labour Party isn't usually considered the friend of financial services, but that if the 'progressive coalition' mooted by Gordon Brown yesterday were to go ahead, bankers would be reliant on Labour to make their case.
Brown didn't describe precisely who might be in the coalition yesterday, but given that Labour and the Lib Dems combined are 11 seats short of the 326 needed for a parliamentary majority, it will also have to include the Scottish Nationalists (6 MPs), Plaid Cymru (3 MPs), the Social Democratic and Labour Party from Northern Ireland (3 MPs), and possibly the Green Party (1 MP).
The Liberal Democrats' aversion to 'Scargills in Pinstripes' is well known. For a brief outline of their banking-oriented policies (including restricting bonuses to 2.5k, regardless what happens elsewhere in the world), click here.
The SNP's intentions regarding the City are rather less clear given that their most current manifesto for Westminster elections is dated 2005. However, a glance elsewhere at their site suggests that while they're all for saving jobs at Bank of Scotland, financial services employment elsewhere is not on their radar. (Having found their 2010 manifesto in a strange place on their site, it becomes clear that on the radar are higher pensions, protected public spending for Scotland, lower fuel duties, scrapping Trident, doing away with the House of Lords, and limiting 'bonus payments as part of wider regulatory reform'.)
The same can't be said for Plaid Cyrmu, which rivals the Lib Dems for banker bludgeoning. "Neither Labour nor the Tories can be trusted to put the needs of Welsh communities before the needs of the City of London," it says. "For years, Labour has tailored its economic policies towards the City of London and financial sector at the expense of manufacturing and other sectors."
In Wales and Northern Ireland, public spending accounts for 70% of GDP according to the CEBR. Nevertheless, the Social Democratic and Labour Party of Northern Ireland is keen on trimming public spending - whilst supporting tourism and construction industries. Finance isn't on their radar.
In a 'Progressive Coalition', this would leave the Labour Party to stand up for the City and its contribution UK tax revenues. Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling, haven't done badly at this. But Brown is now going, and may well be replaced by someone with the support of the Unions. That would leave no one.