Are Merrill bonuses going back to 2007, or back to 2005?

Earlier this week we speculated about the possibility of parsimonious payouts at BofA Merrill Lynch this year.

Today, however, the Wall Street Journal suggests BofA may, in fact, be rather generous: it cites "people familiar with the situation," who claim investment bankers at BofA will be in receipt of payments similar to those of 2007 as the bank seeks to buy their loyalty.

This appears to tie in with what we understand Andrea Orcel told a rival publication recently: bankers in London will be well paid.

One senior headhunter confirms that in Europe at least, this is the case: "In London, the bank has had a good year in trading. Fixed income, markets, and commodities have done very well and the bonus pool is very strong."

However, there are still a few cloud-like shapes on the BofA Merrill bonus horizon.

One is the fact that deferrals look like being substantial. Barclays Capital and Morgan Stanley are expected to defer 60 and 65% of this year's bonuses. According to the Wall Street Journal, BofA Merrill is planning to defer 75%.

Another is the persistent allegation that very senior staff will get little or nothing. One London headhunter claims that the top hundred Merrill people, many of whom were mentioned on the list given to Cuomo, won't be paid in 2009.

And finally, although the Wall Street Journal's article today says BofA bankers will be paid well, it raises a few doubts about the enormity of the bonuses paid to legacy Merrill staff compared to previous years.

As the graph below (from the WSJ) suggests, ML bonuses this year will be more akin to 2005 than 2007.

Historically, BofA has been considerably less generous than Merrill. In 2008, it paid $14k per employee; Merrill paid $61k.

The bank didn't return calls asking for comment.