A sign there may not be that much hiring in the next three months after all

There are various reasons why the first quarter probably won't be a time of big hiring.

There are notice periods, which usually last for at least three months and prevent anyone from moving for 12 weeks after bonuses have been paid out. There is the bonus tax, which will be levied on buyouts arranged in the first three months of the year. And there is uncertainty over the shape of this year's bonuses, which means most people are unwilling to commit to moving anywhere until they've seen exactly what they're going to get.

In combination, these factors look like snuffing out any dramatic recruitment between now and March.

The results to a survey by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the CBI show that a balance of only 4% of 'securities trading' firms expect employment to rise in the next three months, compared to 48% over the past three months.

Our own hiring survey, undertaken at the end of last year, showed that although 40% of 435 respondents expected headcount to increase throughout 2010, 60% expected it to fall or stay the same. Hiring was thought most likely in risk management.

Even only modest recruitment is, however, an improvement on last year. In December 2009, a balance of 94% of securities traders responding to PWC's survey expected headcount to fall in the three months that followed.