The real issue for UBS is how it's going to pay people this year
Tomorrow morning, UBS is set to unveil its strategy during its investor day presentation. In investment banking, it's widely expected to increase the emphasis it places on fixed income sales and trading: it's known to be hiring in the area, and has already brought in at least 30 senior people from rivals.
However, according to some headhunters, the more immediate issue for UBS is how it will keep its corporate financiers happy given its inability to cross-subsidize the bonus pool with profits from fixed income currency and commodity (FICC) activities.
UBS's belated FICC push means it made a CHF6.3bn loss for the first nine months of this year, while rivals like Goldman and Deutsche Bank have made FICC-fuelled profits. As a result, UBS's compensation ratio for the period stood at 177%.
"There's going to be a huge battle within UBS," says one M&A-focused search consultant. "Its corporate financiers have actually done quite well, but UBS hasn't made the money in fixed income that other houses have; it's also having to spend to hire in FICC."
US pay consultants Johnson Associates are predicting that bonuses in M&A will fall 10-15% this year. At UBS, the reduction could be even more substantial.
To help discourage departures, UBS has increased salaries substantially, to as much as 300k to senior staff. It's also promised not to tie bonuses too strongly to business performance until the bank returns to profit.
One M&A headhunter says it's not actually that easy to poach from UBS: the most dissatisfied M&A bankers are at Citigroup.