The Middle East will be excluded from this year's bonus bonanza

Investment banking bonuses in major financial centres like New York, London and Tokyo are likely to be up to 50% higher in 2009-10 than last year, while those in the Middle East remain flat on 2008. However, this doesn't necessarily mean Gulf-based bankers will be significantly worse off.

On the face of it, bonus projections produced by executive search firm Options Group make Western markets look a lot more desirable than the Middle East. Most roles in the majority of developed markets will rise by between 30-50% this year, it suggests, while variable compensation in the Middle East will remain static.

But despite the seemingly dramatic bonus increases in places like London and New York, bankers will still be 5-15% worse off than in 2007, due to the 40-60% drop last year. Bankers in Dubai, meanwhile, saw their pay chopped by just 10-15% in 2008, according to Options Group figures, so this year they're in a similar situation to their Western-based counterparts.

Still, as the table below shows, other smaller financial centres are also likely to see greater bonus pools this year, while the Middle East remains flat, which doesn't exactly look very positive for hopes of recovery in the region's financial sector.

Source: Options Group