Expats will leave Dubai even when things get BETTER
Dubai's reliance on expat financial services talent is no secret, nor is the fact that increasing numbers are hopping on planes home as redundancies rise and job opportunities dry up. However, while the majority still remain, they could simply be waiting for the right opportunity to leave.
New research by consultants at Oxford Analytica, called (rather ominously) 'Dubai expatriate allure fading', suggests the emirate is no longer a very desirable place to be. But, here's the slightly scary part [our emphasis]:
"Despite increasing worries regarding job security, the majority of expatriates have said they are likely to remain until the worldwide situation improves. This means that there could be an even greater exodus when things do improve."
And the impact of this exodus?:
Westerners (who have often brought families as well) are more likely to buy property and spend their disposable income in the country than their Asian expatriate counterparts. Their departure will in turn further depress the property sector, reduce consumer spending, and create further job losses.
So Dubai clearly needs expats. The think-tank says its appeal is diminishing because of -
· Increased salary requirements (10,000 dirhams a month) in order for expats to bring their families with them;
· Continued focus on Emiratisation meaning it's even harder to find a job and that westerners are laid off first;
· Strict punitive rules around falling into bad debt;
· A new code of conduct around clothing, displays of affection and alcohol consumption (among other things) creating an image of an overly-conservative society;
· From October, the need to pass a local 'culture test' to obtain a UAE residency visa.
All in all, it doesn't look great for Dubai. The report concludes:
Changing norms probably will continue to have a detrimental impact on Dubai's attractiveness to Westerners when the financial crisis is over.
