Fears that job cuts will come to South African finance
Employment opportunities still abound in South Africa and the financial services sector in particular has been sheltered from the global crisis, but there is a looming sense that the storm will catch up with the country and wreak havoc with its economy.
At least this is what emerges from recruitment company Manpower's Employment Outlook Survey for the second quarter of 2009.
"We have not seen the full impact of the global recession in South Africa yet and we will only do so from July 2009 onwards," says Jan Coetzee, managing director of Manpower SA. " The high level of uncertainty that currently exists in the SA economy will lead to very depressed hiring conditions in the financial services and banking sectors."
The survey works on a complicated methodology in which the percentage of employers interviewed for the survey who say they anticipate recruitment to decrease is deducted from the percentage who expect activity to increase.
The result is the 'Net Employment Outlook figure.' The overall figure for the country in the second quarter of 2009 is +14, an increase compared to the previous quarter but a drop of nine points compared to the second quarter of 2008. The same pattern emerges in the financial sector: the outlook is +8, compared to +6 in the first quarter of this year and to a more buoyant +21 in the second quarter of last year.
"Job seekers in the finance, insurance and business services sector will find some opportunities arising during the second Quarter, given the cautiously optimistic outlook reported by employers," says Coetzee. "The outlook has strengthened by a slight two percentage points quarter-over-quarter, but weakened by a considerable 13 percentage points year-on-year."
The relative good health of the financial sector is highlighted by the regional survey. The two regions where the industry is concentrated report by far the strongest hiring prospects.
Gauteng, where Johannesburg is, has an upbeat outlook of +18 and the Western Cape, where Cape Town is, of +13 per cent, although again the year-on-year comparison reveals weaker hiring plans.
"Clients in the financial sector are still looking at hiring more highly skilled candidates," says Coetzee. "We are seeing a change from a candidate-driven employment market to a market where companies have a larger pool of good candidates to choose from, due to retrenchments and staff reductions, so they are able to attract high level candidates at lower salary levels."
Net Employment Outlook - Finance, Insurance and Business Services
4th quarter 2006 +32
1st quarter 2007 +40
2nd quarter 2007 +43
3rd quarter 2007 +22
4th quarter 2007 +27
1st quarter 2008 +22
2nd quarter 2008 +21
3rd quarter 2008 +15
4th quarter 2008 +15
1st quarter 2009 +6
2nd quarter 2009 +8
Source: Manpower
