Back to 2003? Are Goldman jobs most at risk?
This time last year, the talk was of a return to revenue and headcount levels last seen in 2005. However, Morgan Stanley analysts now predict that 2009 revenue levels will be more akin to those of 2003. If banks resize accordingly, our analysis below suggests the axe may fall hardest at Goldman Sachs.
1. Goldman Sachs
4Q 2003 headcount: 19,478
4Q 2005 headcount: 22,425
4Q 2008 headcount: 30,067
Announced redundancies: 10% announced in October 2008
Additional cuts required for a reversion to 2003 headcount levels: 7,582, 25%
2. Merrill Lynch (RIP)
4Q 2003 headcount: 48,100
4Q 2005 headcount: 54,600
3Q 2008 headcount: 60,900
Announced redundancies: Before ML was subsumed into BofA, thousands of job cuts were announced in IT, operations and corporate functions in October. In December, Bank of America announced 35,000 job cuts over three years at the combined entity. Charlie Gasparino predicts 10,000 will go from the investment bank.
Additional cuts required for a reversion to 2003 headcount levels: 12,800, 21% (based on Q308 headcount)
3. Citigroup
4Q 2003 headcount: 275,000
4Q 2005 headcount: 297,000
4Q 2008 headcount: 352,000
Announced redundancies: 50,000 job cuts announced in November 2008
Additional cuts required for a reversion to 2003 headcount levels: 27,000, 10%
4. UBS (investment bank only)
4Q 2003 headcount: 15,500
4Q 2005 headcount: 18,582
3Q 2008 headcount: 18,901
Announced redundancies: 10% announced in November 2008
Additional cuts required for a reversion to 2003 headcount levels: 1,510, 8%
5. Deutsche Bank (corporate banking and securities only)
4Q 2003 headcount: 9,915
4Q 2005 headcount: 9,293
3Q 2008 headcount: 11,167
Announced redundancies: 900 trading jobs cut in November.
Additional cuts required for a reversion to 2003 headcount levels: 352, 4%
6. Credit Suisse (investment bank only)
4Q 2003 headcount: 18,341
4Q 2005 headcount: 18,809
3Q 2008 headcount: 21,300
Announced redundancies: Investment banking headcount cuts of 17% announced in December.
Additional cuts required for a reversion to 2003 headcount levels: None
7. Morgan Stanley
4Q 2003 headcount: 51,196
4Q 2005 headcount: 53,218
4Q 2008 headcount: 46,964
Announced redundancies: 10% announced in November 2008
Additional cuts required for a reversion to 2003 headcount levels: None
