Australia: preview of 2009

Good(ish) year

Middle office

Being stuck in the middle may not be so bad in 2009. Middle office functions are less affected by market-driven events and although some organisations will cut back, others will continue to grow and develop these business units in 2009, says Melissa Tal, a recruiter at Michael Page International. Expect expansion in part-qualified financial accountant to finance manager level positions (AU$80K to AU$150K), encompassing business analysis, compliance, some risk-based positions and general shared services roles. "The middle office function has achieved consistent growth over the past year and we would expect that to continue 2009," adds Tal.

Contractors

As it becomes more difficult to obtain sign-off for permanent hires, demand for contractors will rise, says Vanessa Harding-Farrenberg, joint managing director of Morgan McKinley's Sydney office. "There is also the possibility that we may see some of those contractors taken on as permanent hires towards the end of 2009 although this will depend on the wider economic situation at the time," she adds.

Insolvency

It's the classic counter-cyclical sector. Insolvency and restructuring professionals will be on the recruitment radar at banks in 2008 as the threat of bankruptcy looms over an increasing number of Australian businesses. Candidates with accounting and financial modelling skills should step forth.

Lovers of new regulation

With APRA, ASIC and Department of Treasury all receiving a funding boost, more oversight of financial markets is on the cards. "This should then be reciprocated by financial service providers increasing their compliance staff numbers to address any new regulatory obligations arising in 2009," says Jacob Smith, manager, risk management and compliance at Robert Walters. Smith also reckons that the regulators themselves will be major recruiting organisations over the next 12 months.

Poaching back from the i-banks

The Big Four have traditionally been the training ground for project and infrastructure corporate finance executives who then move onto the global i-banks, Macquarie, or Babcock & Brown. But 2009 might be the year when this trend is reversed as out-of-work investment bankers look for opportunities at the locals.

Bad year

Property

Bankers specialising in real estate are in for a rough ride. Property funds, particularly listed ones, were adversely affected by negative market sentiment in 2008. Property values are being pushed down as funds attempt to increase liquidity by lowering debt exposure. "This coupled with the difficulties in raising debt for projects means that there will be little to no growth in this sector in 2009. Organisations that have not already reduced their property teams will be likely to do so in 2009," says Tal.

Salaries

The heady days of candidates demanding 25% uptakes in pay just for moving jobs are over. Recruiters reckon that steady salaries are all we should expect overall in 2009, with decreases possible where the oversupply is most severe (back office beware). Harding-Farrenberg explains: "the domestic recruitment market has seen an influx of talent as a number of Australians return home from overseas and redundancies are made. Therefore, it is expected that there will be some areas within the sector which will experience salary deflation as a result of reduced demand and increased supply of talent."

Operations

Back office professionals had a shocker in 2008 and they're looking equally as vulnerable in '09. "With some organisations already having made significant back office redundancies we anticipate this area of employment will not improve until mid 2009 at the earliest. Should the current economic slowdown continue into 2009 it will be difficult to see any growth in this sector until the start of 2010," adds Tal.

Merger-related redundancies

Banking-sector takeovers and mergers look likely to cause a high proportion of the job losses in 2009. Westpac's merger with St George will lead to the most, mainly in the back office and head office. Some put the final redundancy figure as high as 2000, although numbers have not yet been confirmed. Merging in the middle of a global meltdown could make banks even more trigger happy during a takeover. In the current market, firms will be more ruthless about cutting staff.

Jobs at Macquarie

Macquarie has avoided the savage writedowns and losses experienced by its Wall Street rivals, but industry experts think the 100 or so layoffs it made in December 2008 won't be its last. Big Mac will keep on quietly trimming. "By the end of 2009 we might see thousands being let go from Macquarie, but they won't make a big announcement. They'll just do it a few at a time," says a headhunter who did not want to be named.