Will local banks start slashing in 2009?
With multi-national banks trimming headcount in the GCC, some big-hitting local banks have stepped forward with reassurances that they won't be making redundancies. However, some think this is slightly optimistic and even if they do hold fire, recruitment is set to tail off going into next year.
The likes of Emirates NBD, Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank and Union National Bank told Gulf News that not only are they ruling out redundancies, but they're continuing to recruit new people.
"We haven't made any lay-offs and there are no immediate plans to do that," said Sanjay Uppal, chief financial officer at Emirates NBD.
Such bullish public statements may reassure local bank workers, but off-the-record HR professionals are slightly more candid. While one refused to be drawn on potential lay offs, he stressed that recruitment is going fall 80% next year - from 160 new recruits in 2008 to just 20 in 2009.
"We had planned to expand into Central Asia and Africa and place this in the hands of new recruits, but it has been put on hold because of the economic situation," he said.
While it might be fine to talk a good game about the resilience of the GCC banking sector, in practice it's becoming clear that it's naïve to think the region totally unaffected by the global downturn.
Recruiters tell us they know of local firms who have trimmed headcount and then swept it under the carpet.
One headhunter tells us: "All the local houses we speak to are being incredibly bearish, and I wouldn't be surprised if more lay-offs were on the cards going forward. Any recruitment that had been planned in the fourth quarter of 2008 has been put on hold."