GUEST COMMENT: Christmas can't come soon enough
It's quiet in the office. In fact, I bet it's quiet in pretty much every office in the Square Mile. It's been an unprecedented year, and whilst the flow of bad news has started to slow down, everyone wants to chalk up 2008 as a character building experience, wipe the slate clean and fast forward to 2009. The only noise seems to be the stifling of tears into hankies as another friend and colleague leaves the building with a box under one arm and hastily bought leaving gifts under the other.
Whilst 2008 has been tough, my feeling is the job market for H1 in 2009 will start where it left off. In the past few years, the City simply over-expanded above a natural level. This retraction is therefore both a necessary and ultimately good thing. We'll emerge a leaner, smarter, more nimble machine. Perhaps, even less self-satisfied and arrogant.
As with all aggressive downturns, there are some firms, who ran more conservative ships through the frenzied waters of 2006-2007 who are now in a strong position to capitalise on other people's weakness. They can pick up cheap talent that they wouldn't have otherwise had the chance to hire and are looking to grow through the downturn, emerging with stronger platforms, growing franchises, an extended client base, and ultimately stronger businesses.
Where are these firms? Well some lower to mid-market PE firms seem to view this time as a great opportunity. Corporate finance boutiques can finally get hold of well-trained bulge bracket bankers looking for a life-style choice and greater responsibility. They'll throw in a greater degree of job security into the mix as well. Interestingly, we, along with a number of other recruitment firms, ran a defensive strategy in the last 18 months- did we get it right, or actually miss the boat? Only time will tell.
If you get your timing right and move to one of these companies as it consolidates its position, you could emerge from this with a stronger, more marketable and valuable skillset. Everyone seems to be saying that 2009-2010 will be seen as a vintage year for investments. The same could be said for those who happen to time their career moves well.
Until then, it's about trying to ride out the storm. Try not to make silly moves and avoid the swinging axe if possible. Easier said than done. It's probably best summed up in my film of the year, The Dark Knight- "the night is darkest just before the dawn. And I promise you, the dawn is coming". We just don't know if it's going to get any darker....
Logan Naidu is founder of recruitment firm Cornell Partnership.
