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Agricultural traders come out of the doldrums

Financial firms are (ahem) ploughing money into agricultural commodities and the once-maligned trading roles are back in vogue.

With all the hoo-ha surrounding escalating oil prices, it's easy to overlook the agricultural commodities like grain, oil seeds, coffee, cocoa and sugar, but they're predicted to take off in 2008.

The latest quarterly review from the Bank for International Settlements reveals that trading on the agricultural futures and options market increased 16%, to 528 million contracts. Meanwhile, volumes of sugar futures traded in January on Liffe, the UK derivatives exchange, smashed the previous record by 23%.

Some soft commodities can be used to make bio-fuels, which is helping drive up the price.

Recruiters say that investment banks like Merrill Lynch and Macquarie are bolstering their agricultural commodities trading desks, while others are playing catch-up. But hedge funds are now cashing in, with Mulvaney Capital returning 21% on its crop commodities fund, and Armajaro Asset Management raising $500m for a soft commodities fund in November.

Riann Lazenby, recruiter, grains and oil seeds, at Commodities Appointments, says: "The interest from hedge funds and prop trading houses in traders has reached new levels because of the current phenomenal returns. This has put real pressure on the rather limited talent pool."

And Randal Goldsmith, lead analyst at S&P, has tipped funds of hedge funds to join the party: "Many funds of hedge funds currently see the chance of making good returns from commodity trends, particularly in the agricultural sector. They believe that commodity trading advisors and global macro funds are the best way to play this."

High-paying hedge funds are proving alluring to agricultural traders, who find they're suddenly the headhunters' new best friend, reckons Eric De Rothschild, director, agricultural commodities, at DNA Search: "It might be riskier, but because of the boom they can really cash in."

An agricultural commodities trader can expect to bring in 75k-120k base, with a 200-300% bonus in an i-bank, often guaranteed in the first year, says De Rothschild. A head of desk can expect up to 250k base, with an uncapped bonus in a hedge fund.

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AUTHORPaul Clarke
  • An
    Andrew B - NZ
    25 March 2008

    Two days does not a short to medium term make.

  • Da
    Dave
    20 March 2008

    I'm feeling particularly smug now. Long of put warrants on agro-indices - I cleaned up today. Have a nice easter, folks !!

  • Da
    Dave
    19 March 2008

    Interest what you say but diasagree. As the credit crunch worsens, you will see funds and institutions so starved of liquidity that agro funds will effectively be raided. Retail investors will see the price falls, pull out and there follows an ever increasing downward spiral. Note when the Bear news came out, this started to happen.

  • An
    Andrew B - NZ
    18 March 2008

    Couldn't disagree more with Mike and Dave. I recommend you go to mises.org and read up on Austrian capital theory.

    When central banks print shiploads of money the first place they go is into assets that take ages to pay back their investment (highly capital intensive assets benefit most from artificially lowering the cost of capital). Examples are cars in the 1920s (120 US car companies prior to 1929 crash), tech/biotech research in the 1990s, housing in the 2000s.

    Resources are stripped away from the production of lower order capital goods and consumer goods. Resources extraction/harvesting has been underinvested in for ages (which is why stocks have got so low). Metal resources headed up first because they go into production of infrastructure. Now the money is finally getting to the last stage - agricultural commodities because the actual assets can't be stored for too long and have to be consumed straight away. The run up in ag commodities is a correction, not a bubble.

  • Da
    Dave
    18 March 2008

    Totally agree with Mike Evans...the agricultural commodities are going to absolutely plummet very soon. Your read it here.

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