Hiring holds firm
Banking analysts are predicting a third quarter slowdown. But financial services recruiters say hiring is still roaring ahead.
"We're having our busiest August for years," says Mike Brenan, global managing director of recruitment firm Alexander Mann Financial Markets. "The last time we were this busy was the summer of 2001."
Given that the 2001 hiring boom went swiftly into reverse in 2002, Brennan's comparison may yet prove inauspicious - particularly given the negative noises coming from banking analysts.
The Financial Times today cites Guy Moszkowski, a brokerage analyst at Merrill Lynch, who it says has reduced forecast third quarter earnings at Goldman Sachs by nearly 16%, to $2.77 a share on the back of fewer M&A deals and a potential drop in equity trading.
The FT says prime brokerage fees could be at risk from hedge funds' reduced willingness to borrow heavily and make risky bets on the markets. Slowing US economic growth and difficult international financial markets also have the potential to cause problems.
If times do take a turn for the worse, Brennan says banks will be quick to react. "Banks are very responsive to what's happening in the markets. If things start to slow and costs are seen to be getting out of control, they will simply impose a hiring freeze. So far we are not seeing any sign of hiring falling off, however."
Alexander Mann deals mostly with front office hires. Sarah Lamplough, a banking operations specialist at recruitment firm Badenoch & Clark, says hiring has slowed down slightly in the past couple of weeks, but that this is to be expected in the summer. "There's usually a slowdown at this time of the year, and then hiring picks up again before Christmas," she says.
