Is the Downturn Past its Midpoint? Or Only Beginning?
Depending which manifestation you look at, the credit crunch has raged anywhere from three to 18 months. Is the tide about to turn?
Housing has been correcting for more than a year. Financial markets began adjusting to changed circumstances roughly nine months ago. Even the broad U.S. economy has already endured three or four months of recession, according to some economists. And recent events give little sign of an end in sight.
"It's always darkest before the dawn" is a pop cliché, not an analytical tool. Still, in view of the above timeline, it's reasonable to consider whether the downturn has completed at least half of its likely time span.
Do you believe it has? And, whether optimistic or pessimistic, does your estimate of where we are in the cycle influence your career plans in any way? Post your thoughts below.